Astec Industries Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy

ASTE Stock  USD 40.01  0.63  1.55%   
Astec Industries' odds of distress is under 9% at the present time. It has tiny probability of undergoing some form of financial hardship in the near future. Astec Industries' Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting Astec Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Astec balance sheet, as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Check out Astec Industries Piotroski F Score and Astec Industries Altman Z Score analysis.
For information on how to trade Astec Stock refer to our How to Trade Astec Stock guide.
  

Astec Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Astec Industries' Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Interest Expense1.1M2.5M8.9M9.3M
Depreciation And Amortization28.2M27.9M25.6M15.3M

Probability Of Bankruptcy

 = 

Normalized

Z-Score

More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Astec Industries Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  Less than 9%  
Most of Astec Industries' fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Astec Industries is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Astec Industries probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Astec Industries odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Astec Industries financial health.
Is Astec Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astec Industries. If investors know Astec will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Astec Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.945
Dividend Share
0.52
Earnings Share
1.47
Revenue Per Share
58.9
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
The market value of Astec Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astec that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astec Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astec Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astec Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astec Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astec Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Astec Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astec Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Astec Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Astec Industries is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Astec Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Astec Industries' main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Astec Industries' historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Astec Industries' interrelated accounts and indicators.
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The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Astec Industries has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 9.0%. This is 78.86% lower than that of the Machinery sector and significantly higher than that of the Industrials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 77.4% higher than that of the company.

Astec Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Astec Industries' direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Astec Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astec Industries by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Astec Industries is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Astec Industries Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Return On Assets0.02690.05420.0173(5.91E-4)0.03160.0308
Net Debt(48.2M)(158.2M)(134.2M)21.7M23.3M24.5M
Total Current Liabilities172.9M170.3M225.3M274M299M314.0M
Non Current Liabilities Total25.2M34.9M31.2M113.5M106.6M111.9M
Total Assets799.8M848.2M911.3M1.0B1.1B1.1B
Total Current Assets513.0M565.8M641.7M696.4M719.5M755.5M
Total Cash From Operating Activities112.4M141.5M7.4M(73.9M)27.8M29.4M

Astec Fundamentals

About Astec Industries Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Astec Industries's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Astec Industries using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Astec Industries based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Astec Industries, Inc. designs, engineers, manufactures, and markets equipment and components used primarily in road building and related construction activities in the United States and internationally. Astec Industries, Inc. was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Astec Inds operates under Farm Heavy Construction Machinery classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 4041 people.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Astec Industries in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Astec Industries' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Astec Industries options trading.

Pair Trading with Astec Industries

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Astec Industries position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Astec Industries will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Astec Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Astec Industries could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Astec Industries when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Astec Industries - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Astec Industries to buy it.
The correlation of Astec Industries is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Astec Industries moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Astec Industries moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Astec Industries can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Astec Industries is a strong investment it is important to analyze Astec Industries' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Astec Industries' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Astec Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Astec Industries Piotroski F Score and Astec Industries Altman Z Score analysis.
For information on how to trade Astec Stock refer to our How to Trade Astec Stock guide.
You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.

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When running Astec Industries' price analysis, check to measure Astec Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astec Industries is operating at the current time. Most of Astec Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astec Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astec Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astec Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Astec Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astec Industries. If investors know Astec will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Astec Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.945
Dividend Share
0.52
Earnings Share
1.47
Revenue Per Share
58.9
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.04)
The market value of Astec Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astec that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astec Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astec Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astec Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astec Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astec Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Astec Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astec Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.