Aspen Technology Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| AZPN Stock | USD 196.59 0.89 0.45% |
Aspen | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Aspen Technology Company odds of distress Analysis
Aspen Technology's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Aspen Technology Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 44% |
Most of Aspen Technology's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Aspen Technology is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Aspen Technology probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Aspen Technology odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Aspen Technology financial health.
Is Aspen Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Technology. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.63) | Earnings Share (1.34) | Revenue Per Share 16.424 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.059 | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Aspen Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Aspen Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Aspen Technology is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Aspen Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Aspen Technology's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Aspen Technology's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Aspen Technology's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Aspen Technology has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 44.0%. This is 8.75% higher than that of the Software sector and significantly higher than that of the Information Technology industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 10.47% lower than that of the firm.
Aspen Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Aspen Technology's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Aspen Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspen Technology by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Aspen Technology is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
Aspen Technology Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | 0.19 | 0.22 | 0.002802 | (0.007439) | (0.006695) | (0.00636) | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.0322 | 0.0721 | 0.0829 | 0.0787 | |
| Net Debt | 179.6M | (50.2M) | (97.0M) | (172.8M) | (155.6M) | (147.8M) | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 219.8M | 141.5M | 300.9M | 352.4M | 405.3M | 226.8M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 519.0M | 511.7M | 1.5B | 1.1B | 1.2B | 1.3B | |
| Total Assets | 1.2B | 1.5B | 15.0B | 14.5B | 16.7B | 17.5B | |
| Total Current Assets | 650.2M | 768.3M | 1.0B | 833.1M | 958.0M | 1.0B | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 243.3M | 276.1M | 230.4M | 299.2M | 344.1M | 361.3M |
Aspen Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.0066 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.0078 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0.08) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (0.19) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 12.56 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 63.55 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 57.72 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 47.42 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.45 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 62.82 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 1.05 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 12.72 X | ||||
| Revenue | 1.04 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 331.87 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 308.35 M | ||||
| Net Income | (107.76 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 382.46 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 5.93 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 68.37 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.03 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 3.48 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 201.96 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 299.21 M | ||||
| Short Ratio | 6.73 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (1.34) X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 4.81 X | ||||
| Target Price | 217.86 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 3.9 K | ||||
| Beta | 0.75 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 12.49 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 14.49 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (41.39 M) | ||||
| Working Capital | 480.64 M | ||||
| Current Asset | 240.14 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 164.02 M | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.01 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 14.49 B |
About Aspen Technology Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Aspen Technology's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Aspen Technology using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aspen Technology based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Aspen Technology Investors Sentiment
The influence of Aspen Technology's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Aspen. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Aspen Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aspen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aspen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aspen Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Aspen Technology's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Aspen Technology's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Aspen Technology's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Aspen Technology.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aspen Technology in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aspen Technology's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aspen Technology options trading.
Pair Trading with Aspen Technology
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aspen Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aspen Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Aspen Stock
| 0.62 | BL | Blackline Financial Report 2nd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
Moving against Aspen Stock
| 0.73 | VCSA | Vacasa Inc Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | EB | Eventbrite Class A Financial Report 14th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.64 | QH | QuhuoLtd | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | DOMO | Domo Inc Financial Report 23rd of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.57 | DV | DoubleVerify Holdings Financial Report 8th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aspen Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aspen Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aspen Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aspen Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Aspen Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aspen Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aspen Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aspen Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Aspen Technology Piotroski F Score and Aspen Technology Altman Z Score analysis. To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Technology guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Complementary Tools for Aspen Stock analysis
When running Aspen Technology's price analysis, check to measure Aspen Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aspen Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Aspen Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aspen Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aspen Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aspen Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aspen Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Technology. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.63) | Earnings Share (1.34) | Revenue Per Share 16.424 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.059 | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Aspen Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.