Caterpillar Probability Of Bankruptcy

CAT
 Stock
  

USD 236.41  0.28  0.12%   

Caterpillar Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. Caterpillar Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting Caterpillar Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Caterpillar balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Continue to Caterpillar Piotroski F Score and Caterpillar Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Net Income Per Employee is likely to gain to about 65 K in 2022, whereas Revenue Per Employee is likely to drop slightly above 446.1 K in 2022.

Caterpillar Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Caterpillar's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Caterpillar Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  7%  
Most of Caterpillar's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Caterpillar is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Caterpillar probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Caterpillar odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Caterpillar financial health.
Is Caterpillar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caterpillar. If investors know Caterpillar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caterpillar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.49
Market Capitalization
122.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.21
Return On Assets
0.0695
Return On Equity
0.46
The market value of Caterpillar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caterpillar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caterpillar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caterpillar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caterpillar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caterpillar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caterpillar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Caterpillar value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caterpillar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Caterpillar Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Caterpillar is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Caterpillar's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Caterpillar's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Caterpillar's interrelated accounts and indicators.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Compare to competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Caterpillar has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 7.0%. This is 83.56% lower than that of the Machinery sector and significantly higher than that of the Industrials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 82.43% higher than that of the company.

Caterpillar Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Caterpillar's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Caterpillar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caterpillar by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Caterpillar is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Caterpillar Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Return on Average Assets0.997.917.763.828.068.69
Asset Turnover0.50.60.70.530.630.71
Gross Margin31.732.3931.9130.3430.3328.28
Total Debt34.88 B36.55 B37.66 B37.16 B37.79 B35.61 B
Total Liabilities63.27 B64.47 B63.87 B62.99 B66.31 B61.98 B
Current Liabilities26.93 B28.22 B26.62 B25.72 B29.85 B27.12 B
Total Assets76.96 B78.51 B78.45 B78.32 B82.79 B77 B
Current Assets36.24 B38.6 B39.19 B39.46 B43.45 B38.77 B
Net Cash Flow from Operations5.7 B6.56 B6.91 B6.33 B7.2 B6.61 B
Weighted Average Shares591.8 M591.4 M561.6 M544.1 M544 M633.83 M
Weighted Average Shares Diluted599.3 M599.4 M567.5 M548.6 M548.5 M641.96 M

Caterpillar ESG Sustainability

Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Caterpillar's sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Caterpillar's managers, analysts, and investors.
Environment Score
Governance Score
Social Score

Caterpillar Fundamentals

About Caterpillar Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Caterpillar's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Caterpillar using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Caterpillar based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. Caterpillar operates under Farm Heavy Construction Machinery classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 107700 people.

Caterpillar Investors Sentiment

The influence of Caterpillar's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Caterpillar. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Caterpillar's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Caterpillar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Caterpillar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Caterpillar. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Caterpillar's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Caterpillar's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Caterpillar's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Caterpillar.

Caterpillar Implied Volatility

    
  34.59  
Caterpillar's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Caterpillar stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Caterpillar's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Caterpillar stock will not fluctuate a lot when Caterpillar's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Caterpillar in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Caterpillar's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Caterpillar options trading.

Pair Trading with Caterpillar

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Caterpillar position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Caterpillar will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Caterpillar

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+0.78ABMABM Industries Incor Fiscal Year End 21st of December 2022 PairCorr
+0.66BABoeing TrendingPairCorr

Moving against Caterpillar

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-0.58MESAMesa Air Group Fiscal Year End 8th of December 2022 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Caterpillar could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Caterpillar when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Caterpillar - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Caterpillar to buy it.
The correlation of Caterpillar is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Caterpillar moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Caterpillar moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Caterpillar can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Caterpillar Piotroski F Score and Caterpillar Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Caterpillar information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Caterpillar's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

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When running Caterpillar price analysis, check to measure Caterpillar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caterpillar is operating at the current time. Most of Caterpillar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caterpillar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caterpillar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caterpillar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Caterpillar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caterpillar. If investors know Caterpillar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caterpillar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.49
Market Capitalization
122.7 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.21
Return On Assets
0.0695
Return On Equity
0.46
The market value of Caterpillar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caterpillar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caterpillar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caterpillar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caterpillar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caterpillar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caterpillar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Caterpillar value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caterpillar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.