Dynex Capital Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy

DX Stock  USD 12.40  0.20  1.64%   
Dynex Capital's chance of distress is over 50% at this time. It has a moderate odds of going through some financial straits in the next 2 years. Chance Of Bankruptcy shows the probability of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the Dynex balance sheet, as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Check out Dynex Capital Piotroski F Score and Dynex Capital Altman Z Score analysis.
For more information on how to buy Dynex Stock please use our How to Invest in Dynex Capital guide.
  

Dynex Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

Dynex Capital's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short and Long Term Debt Total2.8B2.6B5.4B5.7B
Total Assets3.7B3.6B6.4B3.3B

Probability Of Bankruptcy

 = 

Normalized

Z-Score

More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current Dynex Capital Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  Over 58%  
Most of Dynex Capital's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Dynex Capital is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Dynex Capital probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Dynex Capital odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Dynex Capital financial health.
Is Dynex Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dynex Capital. If investors know Dynex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dynex Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.54)
Dividend Share
1.56
Earnings Share
(0.25)
Revenue Per Share
0.488
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.36)
The market value of Dynex Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dynex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dynex Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dynex Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dynex Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dynex Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dynex Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dynex Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dynex Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Dynex Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Dynex Capital is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Dynex Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Dynex Capital's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Dynex Capital's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Dynex Capital's interrelated accounts and indicators.
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Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, Dynex Capital has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 58%. This is 35.61% higher than that of the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) sector and significantly higher than that of the Financials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 45.62% lower than that of the firm.

Dynex Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison

Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Dynex Capital's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Dynex Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Dynex Capital by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.
Dynex Capital is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.

Dynex Capital Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201920202021202220232024 (projected)
Return On Assets(0.0284)0.05750.02770.0276(9.62E-4)(9.14E-4)
Asset Turnover(0.0254)0.06470.03460.04910.02080.0168
Net Debt(59.8M)(295.5M)2.5B2.3B5.3B5.5B
Total Current Liabilities15.6M1.4M1.4M16.5M5.4B5.7B
Non Current Liabilities Total2.7M111K18.5M16.5M72.0M68.4M
Total Assets5.4B3.1B3.7B3.6B6.4B3.3B
Total Current Assets88.8M460.4M383.0M357.6M148.4M82.8M
Total Cash From Operating Activities175.3M174.0M147.0M126.4M62.2M90.5M

Dynex Fundamentals

About Dynex Capital Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Dynex Capital's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Dynex Capital using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Dynex Capital based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Dynex Capital, Inc., a mortgage real estate investment trust, invests in mortgage-backed securities on a leveraged basis in the United States. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Glen Allen, Virginia. Dynex Capital operates under REITMortgage classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 19 people.

Dynex Capital Investors Sentiment

The influence of Dynex Capital's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Dynex. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Dynex Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Dynex. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Dynex can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Dynex Capital. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Dynex Capital's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Dynex Capital's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Dynex Capital's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Dynex Capital.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Dynex Capital in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Dynex Capital's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Dynex Capital options trading.

Pair Trading with Dynex Capital

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Dynex Capital position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Dynex Capital will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Dynex Capital could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Dynex Capital when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Dynex Capital - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Dynex Capital to buy it.
The correlation of Dynex Capital is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Dynex Capital moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Dynex Capital moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Dynex Capital can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Dynex Capital offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Dynex Capital's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Dynex Capital Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Dynex Capital Stock:
Check out Dynex Capital Piotroski F Score and Dynex Capital Altman Z Score analysis.
For more information on how to buy Dynex Stock please use our How to Invest in Dynex Capital guide.
You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.

Complementary Tools for Dynex Stock analysis

When running Dynex Capital's price analysis, check to measure Dynex Capital's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Dynex Capital is operating at the current time. Most of Dynex Capital's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Dynex Capital's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Dynex Capital's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Dynex Capital to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Dynex Capital's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Dynex Capital. If investors know Dynex will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Dynex Capital listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.54)
Dividend Share
1.56
Earnings Share
(0.25)
Revenue Per Share
0.488
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.36)
The market value of Dynex Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Dynex that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Dynex Capital's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Dynex Capital's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Dynex Capital's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Dynex Capital's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Dynex Capital's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Dynex Capital is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Dynex Capital's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.