Groupon Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| GRPN Stock | USD 10.60 0.06 0.57% |
Groupon | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Groupon Company odds of distress Analysis
Groupon's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Groupon Probability Of Bankruptcy | Over 58% |
Most of Groupon's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Groupon is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Groupon probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Groupon odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Groupon financial health.
Is Groupon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. If investors know Groupon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Groupon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.092 | Earnings Share (1.77) | Revenue Per Share 16.481 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Groupon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Groupon Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Groupon is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Groupon Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Groupon's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Groupon's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Groupon's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Groupon has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 58%. This is 12.36% higher than that of the Internet & Direct Marketing Retail sector and significantly higher than that of the Consumer Discretionary industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 45.62% lower than that of the firm.
Groupon Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Groupon's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Groupon could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Groupon by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Groupon is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
Groupon Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | (0.009007) | (0.2) | 0.1 | (0.3) | (0.097) | (0.1) | |
| Asset Turnover | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.84 | 0.76 | 0.9 | 1.42 | |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.5 | 0.53 | 0.48 | 0.76 | 0.87 | 0.84 | |
| Net Debt | (425.7M) | (330.2M) | (116.6M) | 28.0M | 111.1M | 116.7M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 821.5M | 939.0M | 631.0M | 531.4M | 369.2M | 350.7M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 370.2M | 364.8M | 316.6M | 252.8M | 242.1M | 224.5M | |
| Total Assets | 1.6B | 1.4B | 1.2B | 793.1M | 571.0M | 542.4M | |
| Total Current Assets | 887.9M | 934.0M | 588.1M | 367.4M | 241.0M | 228.9M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 71.3M | (63.6M) | (124.0M) | (136.0M) | (78.5M) | (74.6M) |
Groupon Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -5.67 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.0094 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0.11) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.11 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 548.25 M | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 38.97 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 16.94 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 80.65 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 4.14 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 3.95 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 1.90 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.78 X | ||||
| Revenue | 514.91 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 522.82 M | ||||
| EBITDA | 40.97 M | ||||
| Net Income | (55.41 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 308 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 10.12 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 278.75 M | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 3.99 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 0.77 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | (1.28) X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (78.54 M) | ||||
| Short Ratio | 2.50 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (1.77) X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 14.66 X | ||||
| Target Price | 18.17 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 2.21 K | ||||
| Beta | 1.66 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 428.67 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 570.96 M | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (1.45 B) | ||||
| Working Capital | (113.57 M) | ||||
| Current Asset | 1.08 B | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 1.2 B | ||||
| Net Asset | 570.96 M |
About Groupon Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Groupon's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Groupon using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Groupon based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Groupon Implied Volatility | 110.91 |
Groupon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Groupon stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Groupon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Groupon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Groupon's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Groupon in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Groupon's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Groupon options trading.
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When running Groupon's price analysis, check to measure Groupon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Groupon is operating at the current time. Most of Groupon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Groupon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Groupon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Groupon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Groupon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Groupon. If investors know Groupon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Groupon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.092 | Earnings Share (1.77) | Revenue Per Share 16.481 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Groupon is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Groupon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Groupon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Groupon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Groupon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Groupon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Groupon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Groupon is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Groupon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.