Probability Of Bankruptcy

Asset symbol is not found or was delisted

We are unable to locate this entity at this time. If you believe the symbol you are trying to look up is valid, please let us know, and we will check it out. Check all delisted instruments across multiple markets.

Indicator Description

The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.

Probability Of Bankruptcy

 = 

Normalized

Z-Score

Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.

Probability Of Bankruptcy In A Nutshell

When looking at the probability of bankruptcy, you want to ensure there is a normalized z-score, which means you do not want the data to be too far from the mean, which is what the z-score measures. When looking at this data point, the probability of bankruptcy is a value between 0 and 100, which will tell you the probability of the company having financial distress in the next 2 years. This is very important to consider because you do not want to invest in a company that is potentially going under.

This data point is certainly a complicated one because you can look at it in either a statistical light or a matter of fact light. When you look at a company that is struggling, you can certainly tell by just how things are and by something simple as cash flow if they are going to succeed. Benjamin Graham, the most well known person of value investing searched for these types of distressed companies, but that is a story for another day. As stated here on Macroaxis, probability of bankruptcy should not be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for bankruptcy protection.

Closer Look at Probability Of Bankruptcy

Taking it a little bit further, besides the obvious reasons of the company being worth nothing, you can use this tool to help you find value stocks. As alluded too, this is when you look for struggling companies, but the idea is that there is limited to no debt and the company has enough cash to survive the down times. Of course there are other factors, but that is why using the probability of bankruptcy in this scenario may prove useful.

This type of information is purely fundamental and should be used as such. When looking at charts, you may see a stocks price begin to tank and take on pressure, this is a prime time to take a look and run the probability of bankruptcy, to know in the near term if the business is going to viable. There are other items you would want to take a look at such as the executive’s comments and the tone of the room. Listen in on the conference calls and determine what everyone is saying, as this will give you the best feel of where the company is headed. Bankruptcy is a last resort due to the many implications it poses, but do know a company can come close to bankruptcy and still prove to be a winner.

Other Suggestions

IM Ingram MicroCompany
IMO Imperial OilCompany
IMPPP Imperial Petroleum PreferredCompany
IMBAX Voya Limited MaturityMutual Fund
IMAR Innovator ETFs TrustETF
IMUS Dow Jones IslamicIndex
IMX Immutable XCryptocurrency

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Trending Themes

If you are a self-driven investor, you will appreciate our idea-generating investing themes. Our themes help you align your investments inspirations with your core values and are essential building blocks of your portfolios. A typical investing theme is an unweighted collection of up to 20 funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of equities with common characteristics such as industry and growth potential, volatility, or market segment.
Cash Cows Idea
Cash Cows
Invested few shares
Adviser Favorites Idea
Adviser Favorites
Invested a lot of shares
Hedge Favorites Idea
Hedge Favorites
Invested over 100 shares
Warren Buffett Holdings Idea
Warren Buffett Holdings
Invested few shares
Investor Favorites Idea
Investor Favorites
Invested over 40 shares
Momentum Idea
Momentum
Invested few shares
Check out your portfolio center.
Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

Other Complementary Tools

Commodity Directory
Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Bonds Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Funds Screener
Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges