Natural Beneish M Score

NGVC -  USA Stock  

USD 13.34  0.87  6.12%

This module uses fundamental data of Natural Grocers to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Natural Grocers M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Additionally, see Natural Grocers Piotroski F Score and Natural Grocers Altman Z Score analysis.

Natural Beneish M Score 

 
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Natural Grocers Total Debt is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Total Debt was at 460.16 Million. The current year Debt Current is expected to grow to about 43.4 M, whereas Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities is forecasted to decline to (7.4 M). Natural Grocers Long Term Debt to Equity is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Long Term Debt to Equity was at 0.26. The current year Calculated Tax Rate is expected to grow to 29.11, whereas Interest Coverage is forecasted to decline to 13.51.
At this time, it appears that Natural Grocers By is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Natural Grocers' top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Natural Grocers executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Natural Grocers' earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.72
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables
1.35
Asset Quality
0.72
Expense Coverage
1.05
Gross Margin Strengs
1.05
Accruals Factor
1.05
Depreciation Resistance
1.22
Net Sales Growth
0.8
Financial Leverage Condition
1.0

Natural Grocers Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Natural Grocers' auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Revenues746.4 M933.2 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Selling General and Administrative Expense245.2 M291.9 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations64.6 M59.9 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion31.3 M35.9 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets662.1 M613.6 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments1.3 M1.3 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Stable
Investments Current1.3 M1.3 M
Notably Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments Non Current948.4 K1.1 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net654.2 M606.4 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables10.6 M9.8 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities494 M457.9 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets102.7 M129.1 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Assets Non Current668 M619.1 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities125.4 M116.2 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Liabilities Non Current471 M436.5 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt496.5 M460.2 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Current43.4 M40.2 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Non Current453.1 M419.9 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income20.6 M25 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin32.9631.4
Sufficiently Up
Increasing
Stable

Natural Grocers By Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Natural Grocers' different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Natural Grocers in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Natural Grocers' degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Natural Grocers Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

31.3 MillionShare
Natural Grocers Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Depreciation Amortization and Accretion was at 35.87 Million

Natural Grocers Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Natural Grocers. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201620172018201920202021 (projected)
Revenues769.03 M849.04 M903.58 M1.04 B933.16 M746.36 M
Total Assets299.99 M307.08 M327.11 M681.79 M613.61 M662.06 M
Current Assets108.22 M110.95 M115.18 M143.41 M129.07 M102.71 M
Assets Non Current191.78 M196.13 M211.93 M538.38 M619.14 M668.01 M
Total Liabilities166.11 M160.36 M170.21 M508.73 M457.85 M494 M
Current Liabilities71.56 M79.69 M83.27 M129.15 M116.23 M125.41 M
Total Debt61.82 M54.33 M58.21 M400.14 M460.16 M496.49 M
Debt Current548 K736 K1.04 M34.99 M40.24 M43.42 M
Debt Non Current61.27 M53.6 M57.17 M365.15 M419.92 M453.07 M
Operating Income14.1 M15.05 M16.77 M27.75 M24.97 M20.59 M
Gross Margin27.6126.5726.4227.3131.432.96

About Natural Grocers Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Natural Grocers By's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Natural Grocers using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Natural Grocers By based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado. Natural Grocers is traded on New York Stock Exchange in the United States.

Natural Grocers Investors Sentiment

The influence of Natural Grocers' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Natural. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Natural Grocers Implied Volatility

    
  99.24  
Natural Grocers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natural Grocers By stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natural Grocers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natural Grocers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natural Grocers' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Natural Grocers in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Natural Grocers' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Natural Grocers options trading.

Current Sentiment - NGVC

Natural Grocers By Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Natural Grocers By. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Natural Grocers By? Are you bullish or bearish?
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98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Additionally, see Natural Grocers Piotroski F Score and Natural Grocers Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Natural Grocers By information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Natural Grocers' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Complementary Tools for Natural Stock analysis

When running Natural Grocers By price analysis, check to measure Natural Grocers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Grocers is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Grocers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Grocers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Grocers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Grocers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Natural Grocers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Grocers. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Grocers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Natural Grocers By is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Grocers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Grocers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Grocers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Grocers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Grocers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Natural Grocers value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Grocers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.