Natural Piotroski F Score

NGVC -  USA Stock  

USD 13.34  0.87  6.12%

This module uses fundamental data of Natural Grocers to approximate its Piotroski F score. Natural Grocers F Score is determined by combining nine binary scores representing 3 distinct fundamental categories of Natural Grocers By. These three categories are profitability, efficiency, and funding. Some research analysts and sophisticated value traders use Piotroski F Score to find opportunities outside of the conventional market and financial statement analysis.They believe that some of the new information about Natural Grocers financial position does not get reflected in the current market share price suggesting a possibility of arbitrage. Additionally, see Natural Grocers Altman Z Score, Natural Grocers Correlation, Natural Grocers Valuation, as well as analyze Natural Grocers Alpha and Beta and Natural Grocers Hype Analysis.

Natural Piotroski F Score 

 
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Natural Grocers Total Debt is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Total Debt was at 460.16 Million. The current year Debt Current is expected to grow to about 43.4 M, whereas Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities is forecasted to decline to (7.4 M). Natural Grocers Long Term Debt to Equity is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Long Term Debt to Equity was at 0.26. The current year Calculated Tax Rate is expected to grow to 29.11, whereas Interest Coverage is forecasted to decline to 13.51.
At this time, it appears that Natural Grocers' Piotroski F Score is Strong. Although some professional money managers and academia have recently criticized Piotroski F-Score model, we still consider it an effective method of predicting the state of the financial strength of any organization that is not predisposed to accounting gimmicks and manipulations. Using this score on the criteria to originate an efficient long-term portfolio can help investors filter out the purely speculative stocks or equities playing fundamental games by manipulating their earnings..
7.0
Piotroski F Score - Strong
1
Current Return On Assets
Positive
2
Change in Return on Assets
Increased
3
Cash Flow Return on Assets
Positive
4
Current Quality of Earnings (accrual)
Decreasing
5
Asset Turnover Growth
Increase
6
Current Ratio Change
Increase
7
Long Term Debt Over Assets Change
Higher Leverage
8
Change In Outstending Shares
Decrease
9
Change in Gross Margin
Increase

Natural Grocers Piotroski F Score Drivers

The critical factor to consider when applying the Piotroski F Score to Natural Grocers is to make sure Natural is not a subject of accounting manipulations and runs a healthy internal audit department. So, if Natural Grocers' auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back. Below are the main accounts that are used in the Piotroski F Score model. By analyzing the historical trends of the mains drivers, investors can determine if Natural Grocers' financial numbers are properly reported.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Weighted Average Shares18.4 M20.3 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Weighted Average Shares Diluted18.5 M20.3 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations64.6 M59.9 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets662.1 M613.6 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities494 M457.9 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets102.7 M129.1 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities125.4 M116.2 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt496.5 M460.2 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Return on Average Assets5.424.56
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin32.9631.4
Sufficiently Up
Increasing
Stable
Asset Turnover2.932.36
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile

Natural Grocers By F Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to project the various growth rates. Understanding the correlation between Natural Grocers' different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Natural Grocers in a much-optimized way.

About Natural Grocers Piotroski F Score

F-Score is one of many stock grading techniques developed by Joseph Piotroski, a professor of accounting at the Stanford University Graduate School of Business. It was published in 2002 under the paper titled Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information to Separate Winners from Losers. Piotroski F Score is based on binary analysis strategy in which stocks are given one point for passing 9 very simple fundamental tests, and zero point otherwise. According to Mr. Piotroski's analysis, his F-Score binary model can help to predict the performance of low price-to-book stocks.

Book Value per Share

7.55Share
Natural Grocers Book Value per Share is projected to increase based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Book Value per Share was at 8.84

Natural Grocers Current Valuation Drivers

We derive many important indicators used in calculating different scores of Natural Grocers from analyzing Natural Grocers' financial statements. These drivers represent accounts that assess Natural Grocers' ability to generate profits relative to its revenue, operating costs, and shareholders' equity. Below are some of Natural Grocers' important valuation drivers and their relationship over time.
201620172018201920202021 (projected)
Net Income Per Employee2.11 K3.52 K2.56 K4.67 K5.37 K5.23 K
Revenue Per Employee235.18 K235.98 K245.47 K242.04 K217.84 K210.46 K
Average Assets295.5 M304.73 M317.7 M675.77 M777.14 M838.49 M
Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA43.71 M44.58 M46.24 M59.74 M53.77 M44.23 M
Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization USD43.61 M44.48 M45.74 M58.94 M67.78 M58.72 M
Earnings before Tax10.3 M10.49 M11.81 M25.7 M29.56 M24.6 M
Average Equity131.93 M143 M153.64 M167.56 M192.69 M168.76 M
Enterprise Value179.57 M428.04 M272.98 M588.99 M530.09 M470.42 M
Free Cash Flow2.44 M19.21 M8.19 M39.75 M45.71 M49.32 M
Invested Capital278.07 M266.68 M287.2 M913.78 M1.05 B1.13 B
Invested Capital Average270.95 M273.01 M279.8 M920.78 M1.06 B1.14 B
Market Capitalization125.19 M377.74 M224.32 M222.09 M199.88 M266.79 M
Tangible Asset Value294.34 M301.44 M318.47 M671.32 M772.02 M832.97 M
Working Capital36.65 M31.26 M31.91 M14.26 M16.4 M21.48 M

About Natural Grocers Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Natural Grocers By's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Natural Grocers using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Natural Grocers By based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado. Natural Grocers is traded on New York Stock Exchange in the United States.

Natural Grocers Investors Sentiment

The influence of Natural Grocers' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Natural. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Natural Grocers Implied Volatility

    
  99.24  
Natural Grocers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natural Grocers By stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natural Grocers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natural Grocers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natural Grocers' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Natural Grocers in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Natural Grocers' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Natural Grocers options trading.

Current Sentiment - NGVC

Natural Grocers By Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Natural Grocers By. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Natural Grocers By? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Natural Grocers By using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Natural Grocers Altman Z Score, Natural Grocers Correlation, Natural Grocers Valuation, as well as analyze Natural Grocers Alpha and Beta and Natural Grocers Hype Analysis. Note that the Natural Grocers By information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Natural Grocers' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Exposure Probability module to analyze equity upside and downside potential for a given time horizon across multiple markets.

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When running Natural Grocers By price analysis, check to measure Natural Grocers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Grocers is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Grocers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Grocers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Grocers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Grocers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Natural Grocers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Grocers. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Grocers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Natural Grocers By is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Grocers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Grocers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Grocers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Grocers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Grocers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Natural Grocers value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Grocers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.