Natural Z Score

NGVC -  USA Stock  

USD 13.34  0.87  6.12%

Altman Z Score is one of the simplest fundamental models to determine how likely your company is to fail. The module uses available fundamental data of a given equity to approximate the Altman Z score. Altman Z Score is determined by evaluating five fundamental price points available from the company's current public disclosure documents. Additionally, see Natural Grocers Piotroski F Score and Natural Grocers Valuation analysis.

Natural Z Score 

Natural Grocers Return on Invested Capital is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Return on Invested Capital was at 0.027. The current year Invested Capital is expected to grow to about 1.1 B, whereas Capital Expenditure is forecasted to decline to (26 M). Natural Grocers Interest Expense is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Interest Expense was at 2.36 Million. The current year Net Income is expected to grow to about 19.4 M, whereas Direct Expenses is forecasted to decline to about 540.9 M.

Natural Z Score Analysis

Natural Grocers' Z-Score is a simple linear, multi-factor model that measures the financial health and economic stability of a company. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm going into bankruptcy within next 24 months or two fiscal years from the day stated on the accounting statements used to calculate it. The model uses five fundamental business ratios that are weighted according to algorithm of Professor Edward Altman who developed it in the late 1960s at New York University..
 2018 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Consolidated Income9.42 M20.01 M23.01 M18.64 M
Direct Expenses664.83 M753.7 M678.33 M540.88 M
Z Score 
Sum Of  
5 Factors 
More About Z Score | All Equity Analysis

Current Natural Grocers Z Score

Most of Natural Grocers' fundamental indicators, such as Z Score, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Natural Grocers By is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
First Factor
1.2 * (
Working Capital
Total Assets )
Second Factor
1.4 * (
Retained Earnings
Total Assets )
Thrid Factor
3.3 * (
Total Assets )
Fouth Factor
0.6 * (
Market Value of Equity
Total Liabilities )
Fifth Factor
0.99 * (
Total Assets )

Natural Z Score Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Natural Grocers is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Z Score. Since Natural Grocers' main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Natural Grocers' historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Natural Grocers' interrelated accounts and indicators.
To calculate Z-Score one would need to know current working capital of the company, its total assets, and liabilities, amount of latest retained earnings as well as earnings before interest and tax. Z-Score can be used to compare the odds of bankruptcy of companies in a similar line of business or firms operating in the same industry. Companies with Z-Scores above 3.1 are generally considered to be stable and healthy with a low probability of bankruptcy. Scores that fall between 1.8 and 3.1 lie in a so-called 'grey area' with scores of less than 1, indicating the high probability of distress. Z Score is used widely by financial auditors, accountants, money managers, loan processers, wealth advisers, as well as day traders. In the last 25 years, many financial models that utilize z score has been proved to be successful as a predictor of corporate bankruptcy.
Compare to competition

Based on the company's disclosures, Natural Grocers By has a Z Score of 3.0. This is 66.89% lower than that of the Consumer Defensive sector and 36.36% higher than that of the Grocery Stores industry. The z score for all United States stocks is 65.6% higher than that of the company.

Natural Grocers Current Valuation Drivers

We derive many important indicators used in calculating different scores of Natural Grocers from analyzing Natural Grocers' financial statements. These drivers represent accounts that assess Natural Grocers' ability to generate profits relative to its revenue, operating costs, and shareholders' equity. Below are some of Natural Grocers' important valuation drivers and their relationship over time.
201620172018201920202021 (projected)
Net Income Per Employee2.11 K3.52 K2.56 K4.67 K5.37 K5.23 K
Revenue Per Employee235.18 K235.98 K245.47 K242.04 K217.84 K210.46 K
Average Assets295.5 M304.73 M317.7 M675.77 M777.14 M838.49 M
Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA43.71 M44.58 M46.24 M59.74 M53.77 M44.23 M
Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization USD43.61 M44.48 M45.74 M58.94 M67.78 M58.72 M
Earnings before Tax10.3 M10.49 M11.81 M25.7 M29.56 M24.6 M
Average Equity131.93 M143 M153.64 M167.56 M192.69 M168.76 M
Enterprise Value179.57 M428.04 M272.98 M588.99 M530.09 M470.42 M
Free Cash Flow2.44 M19.21 M8.19 M39.75 M45.71 M49.32 M
Invested Capital278.07 M266.68 M287.2 M913.78 M1.05 B1.13 B
Invested Capital Average270.95 M273.01 M279.8 M920.78 M1.06 B1.14 B
Market Capitalization125.19 M377.74 M224.32 M222.09 M199.88 M266.79 M
Tangible Asset Value294.34 M301.44 M318.47 M671.32 M772.02 M832.97 M
Working Capital36.65 M31.26 M31.91 M14.26 M16.4 M21.48 M

Natural Grocers Institutional Holders

Institutional Holdings refers to the ownership stake in Natural Grocers that is held by large financial organizations, pension funds or endowments. Institutions may purchase large blocks of Natural Grocers' outstanding shares and can exert considerable influence upon its management. Institutional holders may also work to push the share price higher once they own the stock. Extensive social media coverage, TV shows, articles in high-profile magazines, and presentations at investor conferences help move the stock higher, increasing Natural Grocers' value.
Security TypeSharesValue
Dimensional Fund Advisors LpCommon Shares1.3 M14.5 M
Renaissance Technologies LlcCommon Shares760 K8.5 M
Blackrock IncCommon Shares621.8 KM
Vanguard Group IncCommon Shares545.8 K6.1 M
Hotchkis Wiley Capital Management LlcCommon Shares392 K4.4 M
Shelton Capital ManagementCommon Shares285 K3.2 M
Geode Capital Management LlcCommon Shares218.8 K2.5 M

Natural Fundamentals

About Natural Grocers Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Natural Grocers By's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Natural Grocers using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Natural Grocers By based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado. Natural Grocers is traded on New York Stock Exchange in the United States.

Natural Grocers Investors Sentiment

The influence of Natural Grocers' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Natural. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Natural Grocers Implied Volatility

Natural Grocers' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Natural Grocers By stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Natural Grocers' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Natural Grocers stock will not fluctuate a lot when Natural Grocers' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Natural Grocers in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Natural Grocers' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Natural Grocers options trading.

Current Sentiment - NGVC

Natural Grocers By Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Natural Grocers By. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Natural Grocers By? Are you bullish or bearish?
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

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Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Natural Grocers By using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Natural Grocers Piotroski F Score and Natural Grocers Valuation analysis. Note that the Natural Grocers By information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Natural Grocers' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

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When running Natural Grocers By price analysis, check to measure Natural Grocers' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Natural Grocers is operating at the current time. Most of Natural Grocers' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Natural Grocers' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Natural Grocers' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Natural Grocers to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Natural Grocers' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Natural Grocers. If investors know Natural will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Natural Grocers listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Natural Grocers By is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Natural that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Natural Grocers' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Natural Grocers' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Natural Grocers' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Natural Grocers' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Natural Grocers' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Natural Grocers value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Natural Grocers' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.