Probability Of Bankruptcy

Asset symbol is not found or was delisted

We are unable to locate this entity at this time. If you believe the symbol you are trying to look up is valid, please let us know, and we will check it out. Check all delisted instruments across multiple markets.

Indicator Description

The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.

Probability Of Bankruptcy

 = 

Normalized

Z-Score

Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.

Probability Of Bankruptcy In A Nutshell

When looking at the probability of bankruptcy, you want to ensure there is a normalized z-score, which means you do not want the data to be too far from the mean, which is what the z-score measures. When looking at this data point, the probability of bankruptcy is a value between 0 and 100, which will tell you the probability of the company having financial distress in the next 2 years. This is very important to consider because you do not want to invest in a company that is potentially going under.

This data point is certainly a complicated one because you can look at it in either a statistical light or a matter of fact light. When you look at a company that is struggling, you can certainly tell by just how things are and by something simple as cash flow if they are going to succeed. Benjamin Graham, the most well known person of value investing searched for these types of distressed companies, but that is a story for another day. As stated here on Macroaxis, probability of bankruptcy should not be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for bankruptcy protection.

Closer Look at Probability Of Bankruptcy

Taking it a little bit further, besides the obvious reasons of the company being worth nothing, you can use this tool to help you find value stocks. As alluded too, this is when you look for struggling companies, but the idea is that there is limited to no debt and the company has enough cash to survive the down times. Of course there are other factors, but that is why using the probability of bankruptcy in this scenario may prove useful.

This type of information is purely fundamental and should be used as such. When looking at charts, you may see a stocks price begin to tank and take on pressure, this is a prime time to take a look and run the probability of bankruptcy, to know in the near term if the business is going to viable. There are other items you would want to take a look at such as the executive’s comments and the tone of the room. Listen in on the conference calls and determine what everyone is saying, as this will give you the best feel of where the company is headed. Bankruptcy is a last resort due to the many implications it poses, but do know a company can come close to bankruptcy and still prove to be a winner.

Other Suggestions

U Unity SoftwareCompany
UCBIO United Community BanksCompany
USA Liberty All StarFund
UK Ucommune InternationalETF
UTY PHLX UtilityIndex
UQC Uquid CoinCryptocurrency
U12501BH1 CHTR 425 01 FEB 31Corporate Bond

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Explore Investing Ideas

You can quickly originate your optimal portfoio using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.

Did you try this?

Run Theme Ratings Now

   

Theme Ratings

Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
All  Next Launch Module
Check out your portfolio center.
Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Other Complementary Tools

Global Markets Map
Get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Alpha Finder
Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk
Stocks Directory
Find actively traded stocks across global markets
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Fundamental Analysis
View fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements
Balance Of Power
Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios
Top Crypto Exchanges
Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Bonds Directory
Find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital