Upstart Holdingsinc Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| UPST Stock | USD 22.94 0.86 3.89% |
Upstart | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Upstart HoldingsInc Company probability of financial unrest Analysis
Upstart HoldingsInc's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Upstart HoldingsInc Probability Of Bankruptcy | Over 61% |
Most of Upstart HoldingsInc's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Upstart HoldingsInc is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Upstart HoldingsInc probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Upstart HoldingsInc odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Upstart HoldingsInc financial health.
Is Upstart HoldingsInc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Upstart HoldingsInc. If investors know Upstart will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Upstart HoldingsInc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.091 | Earnings Share (2.87) | Revenue Per Share 6.547 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.019 | Return On Assets (0.07) |
The market value of Upstart HoldingsInc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Upstart that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Upstart HoldingsInc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Upstart HoldingsInc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Upstart HoldingsInc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Upstart HoldingsInc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Upstart HoldingsInc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Upstart HoldingsInc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Upstart HoldingsInc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Upstart Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Upstart HoldingsInc is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Upstart Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Upstart HoldingsInc's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Upstart HoldingsInc's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Upstart HoldingsInc's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Upstart HoldingsInc has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 61%. This is 22.17% higher than that of the Consumer Finance sector and 39.02% higher than that of the Financials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 53.15% lower than that of the firm.
Upstart Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Upstart HoldingsInc's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Upstart HoldingsInc could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Upstart HoldingsInc by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Upstart HoldingsInc is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
Upstart HoldingsInc Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | (0.001184) | 0.0125 | 0.0744 | (0.0561) | (0.12) | (0.11) | |
| Asset Turnover | 0.48 | 0.51 | 0.47 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 0.31 | |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.87 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.78 | 0.95 | 0.69 | |
| Net Debt | 84.9M | (168.8M) | (190.8M) | 1.0B | 776.4M | 815.2M | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 91.2M | 54.3M | 54.6M | 119.5M | 139.4M | 120.7M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 51.1M | 82.1M | 795.8M | 1.1B | 1.2B | 622.3M | |
| Total Assets | 393.5M | 477.3M | 1.8B | 1.9B | 2.0B | 1.3B | |
| Total Current Assets | 93.3M | 269.9M | 994.9M | 463.7M | 467.8M | 435.3M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 31.6M | 15.7M | 168.4M | (674.7M) | (160.5M) | (152.5M) |
Upstart Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.37 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.0701 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0.44) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | (0.33) % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 2.78 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 87.81 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 13.11 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 49.65 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 27.34 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 17.98 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 3.29 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 3.81 X | ||||
| Revenue | 513.56 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | 665.29 M | ||||
| EBITDA | (231.62 M) | ||||
| Net Income | (240.13 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 683.97 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 8.35 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 1.24 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 1.42 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 21.37 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 7.36 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | (160.49 M) | ||||
| Short Ratio | 5.32 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (2.87) X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | (20.31) X | ||||
| Target Price | 19.82 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 1.39 K | ||||
| Beta | 1.94 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 1.94 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 2.02 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (282.58 M) | ||||
| Net Asset | 2.02 B |
About Upstart HoldingsInc Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Upstart HoldingsInc's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Upstart HoldingsInc using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Upstart HoldingsInc based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Upstart HoldingsInc Investors Sentiment
The influence of Upstart HoldingsInc's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Upstart. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Upstart HoldingsInc's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Upstart. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Upstart can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Upstart HoldingsInc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Upstart HoldingsInc's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Upstart HoldingsInc's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Upstart HoldingsInc's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Upstart HoldingsInc.
Upstart HoldingsInc Implied Volatility | 89.31 |
Upstart HoldingsInc's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Upstart HoldingsInc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Upstart HoldingsInc's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Upstart HoldingsInc stock will not fluctuate a lot when Upstart HoldingsInc's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Upstart HoldingsInc in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Upstart HoldingsInc's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Upstart HoldingsInc options trading.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Upstart HoldingsInc is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Upstart Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Upstart Holdingsinc Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Upstart Holdingsinc Stock:Check out Upstart HoldingsInc Piotroski F Score and Upstart HoldingsInc Altman Z Score analysis. For more information on how to buy Upstart Stock please use our How to Invest in Upstart HoldingsInc guide.You can also try the Sectors module to list of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities.
Complementary Tools for Upstart Stock analysis
When running Upstart HoldingsInc's price analysis, check to measure Upstart HoldingsInc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Upstart HoldingsInc is operating at the current time. Most of Upstart HoldingsInc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Upstart HoldingsInc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Upstart HoldingsInc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Upstart HoldingsInc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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| Odds Of Bankruptcy Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years |
Is Upstart HoldingsInc's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Upstart HoldingsInc. If investors know Upstart will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Upstart HoldingsInc listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.091 | Earnings Share (2.87) | Revenue Per Share 6.547 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.019 | Return On Assets (0.07) |
The market value of Upstart HoldingsInc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Upstart that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Upstart HoldingsInc's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Upstart HoldingsInc's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Upstart HoldingsInc's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Upstart HoldingsInc's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Upstart HoldingsInc's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Upstart HoldingsInc is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Upstart HoldingsInc's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.