Arlington Story

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AAIC -- USA Stock  

USD 4.08  0.02  0.49%

While this unique economic environment continues, Arlington Asset may throw investors more surprises in two-three weeks. We will evaluate if Arlington Asset shares are reasonably priced going into March. Arlington Asset Inve is presently traded for 4.06. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05. The average price elasticity to hype of competition is about -0.02. The firm is forecasted to increase in value after the next press release, with the price going to jump to 4.11. The current volatility of headline impact on the company stock price is is way over 100 percent making price predictions on social media along less reliable. The price jump on the next news is estimated to be 1.23%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.51%. Given the investment horizon of 30 days the next forecasted announcement will be in about 3 days.
Published over a week ago
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Is Arlington Asset (NYSE:AAIC) gaining more confidence from investors?
One of the ways to look at asset utilization of Arlington is to check how much profit was generated for every dollar of assets it reports. Arlington Asset Investment shows a negative utilization of assets of -2.65 percent, losing $0.0265 for each dollar of assets held by the firm. Inadequate asset utilization signifies that the company is being less effective with each dollar of assets it shows. Put another way, asset utilization of Arlington Asset Investment shows how discouraging it operates for each dollar spent on its assets.
The successful prediction of Arlington Asset stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Arlington Asset Investment, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Arlington Asset based on Arlington Asset hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Arlington Asset's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Arlington Asset's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Arlington expected Price

Arlington Asset technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Arlington Asset technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Arlington Asset trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How Arlington utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Arlington Asset, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Arlington Asset is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Arlington Asset cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.
Arlington Asset Net Cash Flow from Operations is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Net Cash Flow from Operations was at 25.91 Million

Acquisition by Konzmann Richard Ernst of 25487 shares of Arlington Asset subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Arlington Asset insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Arlington insider trading alert for grant of class a common stock by Konzmann Richard Ernst, EVP CFO and Treasurer, on 4th of February 2021. This event was filed by Arlington Asset Investmen with SEC on 2021-02-04. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking it down a bit more

Net Loss for the year was (67.34 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 28.76 M.
 2018 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Operating Income32.76 M11.21 M10.09 M10.36 M
Operating Expenses13.37 M15.02 M17.27 M18.57 M

Revenues Breakdown

Arlington Asset Revenues is decreasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Ongoing Revenues is projected to grow to about 24.2 M this year. Revenues usually refers to amount of Revenue recognized from goods sold; services rendered; insurance premiums; or other activities that constitute an earning process. Interest income for financial institutions is reported net of interest expense and provision for credit losses. Arlington Asset Revenues is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Revenues was at 23.61 Million
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
201494.19 Million
2015102.37 Million
201676.11 Million
201769.73 Million
201846.13 Million
201926.23 Million
202023.61 Million
202124.23 Million

Our perspective of the current Arlington Asset rise

Current total risk alpha is at 0.33. As of the 16th of February 2021, Arlington Asset shows the Downside Deviation of 1.53, mean deviation of 1.44, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2224. Arlington Asset Inve technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to interpolate nineteen technical drivers for Arlington Asset Investment, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Arlington Asset Inve standard deviation, treynor ratio, downside variance, as well as the relationship between the information ratio and value at risk to decide if Arlington Asset Inve is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 4.06 per share. Given that Arlington Asset has jensen alpha of 0.4822, we suggest you to validate Arlington Asset Investment's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Takeaway on Arlington Asset Investment

Whereas other companies under the reit?mortgage industry are still a bit expensive, Arlington Asset may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. With an optimistic outlook on your 30 days horizon, it may be a good time to buy new shares of Arlington or increase your existing holdings in the Stock as it seems the potential growth has not yet been fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Arlington Asset.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Arlington Asset Investment. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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