Will AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC) slip in December?

AmerisourceBergen is generating 0.0543% of daily returns assuming volatility of 1.5209% on return distribution over 60 days investment horizon. As many adventurous traders are excited about healthcare space, it is only fair to go over the risk of shorting AmerisourceBergen based on its current volatility spike. We will evaluate if the latest AmerisourceBergen price volatility suggests a bounce in December. AmerisourceBergen's very low volatility may have no significant impact on the stock's value as we estimate AmerisourceBergen as currently fairly valued. The real value, based on our calculations, is getting close to 105.95 per share.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

AmerisourceBergen has roughly 3.42 B in cash with 1.58 B of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.75.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of AmerisourceBergen or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of AmerisourceBergen may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to AmerisourceBergen's beta indicator, it measures the risk of AmerisourceBergen and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of AmerisourceBergen fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is AmerisourceBergen's Liquidity

AmerisourceBergen financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance AmerisourceBergen ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. AmerisourceBergen financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to AmerisourceBergen's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of AmerisourceBergen's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between AmerisourceBergen's total debt and its cash.

Breaking down AmerisourceBergen Further

AmerisourceBergen reported the last year's revenue of 186.29 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.57 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.99 B.

Our perspective of the current AmerisourceBergen rise

Current skewness is at 0.65. As of the 5th of November, AmerisourceBergen shows the mean deviation of 1.08, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06). AmerisourceBergen technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to collect and analyze data for nineteen technical drivers for AmerisourceBergen, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm AmerisourceBergen variance, maximum drawdown, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha to decide if AmerisourceBergen is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 104.99 per share. Given that AmerisourceBergen has jensen alpha of (0.09), we suggest you to validate AmerisourceBergen's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Final Takeaway

Whereas many other companies under the medical distribution industry are still a bit expensive, AmerisourceBergen may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. To sum up, as of the 5th of November 2020, we believe AmerisourceBergen is currently fairly valued. It slowly supersedes the market and projects very low probability of distress in the next two years. Our actual 30 days buy vs. sell advice on the company is Strong Hold.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Gabriel Shpitalnik do not own shares of AmerisourceBergen. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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