Amerisourcebergen Story

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ABC -- USA Stock  

USD 104.41  0.16  0.15%

While some of us are excited about healthcare space, it makes sense to go over AmerisourceBergen in greater detail to make a better perception of its potential. As we have suggested previously, AmerisourceBergen is beginning its slip as investors shift to be more bearish due to the increased sector volatility. AmerisourceBergen almost mirrors the market. The company returns are correlated to returns on the market. As market fluctuates, the company is expected to follow. Strong forward indicators of the company may suggest signs of short-term price drift for investors. AmerisourceBergen is scheduled to announce its earnings tomorrow. The upcoming quarterly report is expected on the 4th of February 2021.
Published over three weeks ago
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Should you acquire AmerisourceBergen (NYSE:ABC) based on current technical indicators?
AmerisourceBergen's average rating is Buy from 9 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on AmerisourceBergen market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of AmerisourceBergen. Let us look at a few aspects of AmerisourceBergen technical analysis. Earning per share calculations of AmerisourceBergen is based on official Zacks consensus of 7 analysts regarding AmerisourceBergen's future annual earnings. Given the historical accuracy of 98.8%, the future earnings per share of the company is estimated to be 8.3725 with the lowest and highest values of 8.32 and 8.42, respectively. Please note that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for the firm is an estimate of EPS before non-recurring items and including employee stock options expenses.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Amerisourcebergen Corp. In general, we focus on analyzing Amerisourcebergen stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Amerisourcebergen's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Amerisourcebergen's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Amerisourcebergen, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Amerisourcebergen price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amerisourcebergen's stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amerisourcebergen in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amerisourcebergen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amerisourcebergen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amerisourcebergen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amerisourcebergen Corp.

How does Amerisourcebergen Stands against Peers?

Analyzing Amerisourcebergen competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Amerisourcebergen across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out Amerisourcebergen Competition Details

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions.
It is good to see analyst projects for Amerisourcebergen, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Bona fide gift to John Chou of 2000 shares of Amerisourcebergen subject to Section 16

Legal trades by Amerisourcebergen insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Amerisourcebergen insider trading alert for gift of common stock by John Chou, Executive Vice President, on 17th of February 2021. This event was filed by Amerisourcebergen Corp with SEC on 2021-02-17. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4. John Chou currently serves as executive vice president, chief legal officer and secretary of Amerisourcebergen Corp [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Closer look at AmerisourceBergen Semi Deviation

AmerisourceBergen has current Semi Deviation of 1.46. Semi-deviation provides a good measure of downside risk for a equity or a portfolio. It is similar to standard deviation, but it only looks at periods where the returns are less than the target or average level.

Semi-deviation is the square root of semi-variance. Semi-variance is calculated by averaging the deviations of returns that have a result that is less than the mean.

Semi Deviation 
=  
SQRT(SV) 
 = 
1.46
SQRT = Square root notation
SV =   AmerisourceBergen semi variance of returns over selected period
Let's now compare AmerisourceBergen Semi Deviation to its closest peers:
ABC
CAH
MCK
FZMD
ABC1.46
CAH1.5
MCK1.4
FZMD10.72

AmerisourceBergen has 54 percent chance to slip below $103 in 30 days

The expected short fall is down to -1.58 as of today. AmerisourceBergen has relatively low volatility with skewness of 1.13 and kurtosis of 3.56. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate AmerisourceBergen to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns.

Our Final Take On AmerisourceBergen

Whereas other entities in the medical distribution industry are either recovering or due for a correction, AmerisourceBergen may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. With an impartial outlook on the current market volatility, it may be better to hold off any inventment activity and neither buy nor sell any shares of AmerisourceBergen at this time. The AmerisourceBergen risk-reward trade off is not appealing enough to do any trading. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to AmerisourceBergen.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Amerisourcebergen Corp. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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