Is AGNC Investment riskier than Arlington Asset Investment (NYSE:AI)?

It looks like Arlington Asset will continue to recover much faster as its share price surged up 1.37% today to AGNC Investment's 1.4053%. As many rational traders are trying to avoid real estate space, it makes sense to go over AGNC Investment Corp a little further and understand how it stands against Arlington Asset and other similar entities. We are going to analyze some of the competitive aspects of both AGNC Investment and Arlington.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Rifka Kats

By analyzing existing basic indicators between AGNC Investment and Arlington, you can compare the effects of market volatilities on both companies' prices and check if they can diversify away market risk if combined in one of your portfolios. You can also utilize pair trading strategies for matching a long position in Arlington with a short position in AGNC Investment. Check out our pair correlation module for more information.

Let's begin by analyzing the assets. One of the ways to look at asset utilization of AGNC Investment is to check how much profit was generated for every dollar of assets it reports. AGNC Investment Corp shows a negative utilization of assets of -1.96 percent, losing $0.0196 for each dollar of assets held by the firm. Inefficient asset utilization signifies that the company is being less productive with each dollar of assets it shows. Put another way, asset utilization of AGNC Investment Corp shows how inadequate it operates for each dollar spent on its assets.
Out of tens of thousands of stocks, funds, and ETFs that trade on global exchanges each represent an individual company which you can analyze using comparative analysis. To determine which one of the two entities, such as AGNC or Ellington is a better fit for your portfolio, analyzing a few basic fundamental indicators is a good first step.

understanding AGNC Investment dividends

A dividend is the distribution of a portion of AGNC Investment earnings, decided and managed by the company's board of directors and paid to a class of its shareholders. Note, announcements of dividend payouts are generally accompanied by a proportional increase or decrease in a company's stock price. AGNC Investment dividend payments follow a chronological order of events, and the associated dates are important to determine the shareholders who qualify for receiving the dividend payment. AGNC one year expected dividend income is about USD0.96 per share.
The current year's Dividend Payout Ratio is expected to grow to 6.81, whereas Dividends Paid is forecasted to decline to about 922.5 M.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Dividends PaidB922.5 M
Dividend Yield 0.17  0.15 
Dividend Payout Ratio 6.48  6.81 
Dividend Paid And Capex Coverage Ratio(0.12)(0.11)
Investing in dividend-paying stocks, such as AGNC Investment Corp is one of the few strategies that are good for long-term investment. Ex-dividend dates are significant because investors in AGNC Investment must own a stock before its ex-dividend date to receive its next dividend.
This type of analysis is very useful when you want to generate a past dividend schedule and payout information for AGNC Investment. Then that information in the form of graph and calendar can be used to fully explain how Du Pont dividends can provide a real clue to its valuation.

How important is AGNC Investment's Liquidity

AGNC Investment financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance AGNC Investment Corp ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. AGNC Investment financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to AGNC Investment's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of AGNC Investment's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between AGNC Investment's total debt and its cash.

Correlation Between AGNC and Ellington Financial LLC

In general, Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make individual buying and selling decisions. Stock correlation analysis is also essential because it can help investors realize that they may not be as diversified as they think. Risk management strategies are usually required to make sure all portfolios are properly aligned against their risk tolerance level. You can consider holding AGNC Investment together with similar or unrelated positions with a negative correlation. For example, you can also add Ellington Financial to your portfolio. If Ellington Financial is not perfectly correlated to AGNC Investment it will diversify some of the market risks out of the positively correlated stocks in your portfolio. However, the disadvantage of this sort of hedging is that it can potentially affect your investment returns throughout market cycles. When AGNC Investment, for example, performs excellent and delivers stable returns, the negatively correlated position you locked in as a hedge may drag your returns down.
Are you currently holding both AGNC Investment and Ellington Financial in your portfolio? Please note if you are using this as a pair-trade strategy between AGNC Investment and Ellington Financial, watch out for correlation discrepancy over time. Relying on the historical price correlations and assuming that it will not change may lead to short-term losses. Please check pair correlation details between AGNC and EFC for more information.

Breaking it down a bit more

Cash and Equivalents Breakdown

Now, let's check AGNC Investment cash and equivalents. In accordance with the recently published financial statements, AGNC Investment Corp has 6.89 B in Cash and Equivalents. This is much higher than that of the Real Estate sector and significantly higher than that of the REIT—Mortgage industry. The cash and equivalents for all United States stocks is 154.99% lower than that of AGNC Investment Corp. As for Arlington Asset we see cash and equivalents of 783.96 M, which is much higher than that of the REIT—Mortgage
AGNC
6.9 B
AGNC6.89 Billion89.78
Sector0.00.0
AI783.96 Million10.22

Some AGNC Investment technical indicators suggest correction

Maximum drawdown is down to 9.32. It may suggest a possible volatility slip. AGNC Investment Corp currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.01 and Jensen Alpha of 0.02. However, we do advice investors to further question AGNC Investment Corp expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Our Final Perspective on AGNC Investment

Whereas some other firms under the reit—mortgage industry are still a bit expensive, AGNC Investment may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. To conclude, as of the 27th of July 2020, we believe that at this point, AGNC Investment is not too volatile with close to average probability of distress within the next 2 years. From a slightly different point of view, the entity appears to be fairly valued. Our actual 30 days buy-hold-sell advice on the company is Strong Hold.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of AGNC Investment Corp. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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