Ashford Story

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AINC -- USA Stock  

USD 8.20  0.14  1.74%

My story will go over Ashford. I will address few reasons this entity was abused by investors due to the current market volatility. Ashford is presently traded for 8.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.39. The average price elasticity to hype of competition is about 0.61. The firm is forecasted to increase in value after the next press release, with the price going to jump to 8.97. The current volatility of headline impact on the company stock price is is way over 100 percent making price predictions on social media along less reliable. The price jump on the next news is expected to be 4.55%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.86%. Given the investment horizon of 30 days the next forecasted announcement will be in about 10 days.
Published over two weeks ago
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Should I drop my Ashford (NYSEMKT:AINC) holdings?
The company's average rating is Buy from 2 analysts. We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on Ashford. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of (127.62) %, which may suggest that it does not properly executes on its current pricing strategies or is unable to control all of the operational costs. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of (16.58) %, which suggests for every $100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating loss of -0.17.
The successful prediction of Ashford stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ashford, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ashford based on Ashford hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Ashford's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ashford's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Ashford expected Price

Ashford technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Ashford technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Ashford trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How Ashford utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Ashford, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Ashford is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Ashford cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Ashford Net Cash Flow from Operations is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Net Cash Flow from Operations was at 28.4 Million

Ashford exotic insider transaction detected

Legal trades by Ashford insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Ashford insider trading alert for general transaction of stock units under deferred compensation plan by Monty Bennett, CEO and Chairman of the Board, on 11th of January 2021. This event was filed by Ashford Inc with SEC on 2021-01-11. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

A Deeper look at Ashford

The current price rise of Ashford could raise concerns from investors as the firm it trading at a share price of 8.58 on very low momentum in volume. The company directors and management may have good odds in positioning the firm resources to exploit market volatility in February. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 7.66. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the Ashford partners.
 2018 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Current Assets76.81 M77.29 M88.89 M85.21 M
Total Assets379 M782.5 M899.88 M970.92 M

Deferred Revenue Breakdown

Ashford Deferred Revenue is increasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Ongoing Deferred Revenue is projected to grow to about 16.5 M this year. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. Ashford Deferred Revenue is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Deferred Revenue was at 15.27 Million
20164.51 Million
201713.9 Million
201813.54 Million
201913.28 Million
202015.27 Million
202116.48 Million

Another 3 percent rise for Ashford

The coefficient of variation is down to 934.24 as of today. As of the 1st of January, Ashford shows the mean deviation of 3.99, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1202. Ashford technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to break down and interpolate data for nineteen technical drivers for Ashford, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Ashford coefficient of variation, maximum drawdown, skewness, as well as the relationship between the information ratio and downside variance to decide if Ashford is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 8.58 per share. Given that Ashford has jensen alpha of 0.6621, we suggest you to validate Ashford's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Final Takeaway

Whereas some companies under the asset management industry are still a bit expensive, Ashford may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. To summarize, as of the 1st of January 2021, we believe Ashford is currently fairly valued. It very regressive towards the market and projects quite high odds of distress in the next two years. Our up-to-date 30 days buy-hold-sell advice on the company is Cautious Hold.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Ashford. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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