Arch Coal Story

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ARCH -- USA Stock  

USD 46.54  0.91  1.99%

As many millenniums are trying to avoid energy space, it makes sense to concentrate on Arch Coal a little further and try to understand its current market patterns. As we have suggested previously, Arch Coal is beginning its drop as stockholders shift to be more bearish due to the increased sector volatility. Much of the drifts of the company stock price movements has been an effusion of what is happening in the market overall. Fragile basic indicators of the company may also hint to signs of long-run losses for Arch Coal stockholders. Arch Coal is scheduled to announce its earnings today. The next earnings report is expected on the 27th of October 2020.
Published over a month ago
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Is Arch Coal (NYSE:ARCH) outlook positive for August?
The company's average rating is Buy from 4 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Arch Coal market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Arch Coal. Let us look at a few aspects of Arch Coal technical analysis. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of 6.39 %, which can signify that it executes well on its competitive strategies and has good control over its expenditures. This is very large. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 12.21 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of 0.12.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Arch Coal. In general, we focus on analyzing Arch Coal stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Arch Coal's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Arch Coal's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Arch Coal, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Arch Coal price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.

How does Arch Coal Stands against Peers?

Analyzing Arch Coal competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Arch Coal across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out Arch Coal Competition Details

How Arch Coal utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Arch Coal, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Arch Coal is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Arch Coal cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Arch Coal Net Cash Flow from Operations is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Net Cash Flow from Operations was reported at 419.71 Million

Closer look at Arch Coal Mean Deviation

Arch Coal has current Mean Deviation of 4.25. The mean deviation of the equity instrument is the first measure of the distances between each value of security historical prices and the mean. It gives us an idea of how spread out from the center the distribution of returns.

Mean Deviation is the average of the absolute values of the differences between price distribution numbers and their mean. Mean deviation of equity instrument with a lot of historical data is a biased estimator because the time horizon used in calculation will always be much smaller than the entire price history of the equity. The mean deviation is typically used as a measure of dispersion for small investment horizon, otherwise standard deviation is a better measure of dispersion.

Mean Deviation 
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Sum of return deviations of Arch Coal
N = Number of calculation points for selected time horizon
Let's now compare Arch Coal Mean Deviation to its closest peers:

Arch Coal is epected to finish above $29 in August

The potential upside is down to 11.05 as of today. As of the 28th of July, Arch Coal shows the risk adjusted performance of 0.1183, and Mean Deviation of 4.25. Arch Coal technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to analyze nineteen technical drivers for Arch Coal, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Arch Coal jensen alpha, semi variance, and the relationship between the standard deviation and value at risk to decide if Arch Coal is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 29.89 per share. Given that Arch Coal has jensen alpha of 0.054, we suggest you to validate Arch Coal's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

While other companies under the thermal coal industry are still a bit expensive, Arch Coal may offer a potential longer-term growth to stockholders. To conclude, as of the 28th of July 2020, we see that Arch Coal actively responds to the market. The company is undervalued with close to average odds of financial distress within the next 24 months. However, our overall 30 days buy-or-sell advice on the company is Strong Sell.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Arch Coal. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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