Should you pick up more of Alliance (NASDAQ:ARLP) based on recent volatility?

32% of stocks are less volatile than Alliance, and 91% of all traded equity instruments are projected to make higher returns than the company over the 60 days investment horizon. Since many greedy investors are excited about energy space, let's recap Alliance Resource against its current volatility. We are going to focus on if the current expected returns justify Alliance Resource's volatility.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Raphi Shpitalnik

Alliance Resource Partners currently holds roughly 34.13 M in cash with 398.26 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.27.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Alliance Resource or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Alliance Resource may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Alliance's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Alliance Resource and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Alliance Resource fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Alliance Resource's Liquidity

Alliance Resource financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Alliance Resource Partners ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Alliance Resource financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Alliance Resource's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Alliance Resource's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Alliance Resource's total debt and its cash.

Alliance Resource Gross Profit

Alliance Resource Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Alliance Resource previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Alliance Resource Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Alliance Resource's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Alliance Resource Volatility Drivers

Alliance Resource unsystematic risk is unique to Alliance Resource and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Alliance Resource you can also buy Indo Tambangraya Megah. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the energy sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Alliance Resource important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Alliance Resource income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Alliance volatility.
0.650.760.40.420.640.310.13-0.38-0.19-0.190.210.3-0.24-0.67-0.460.38-0.27-0.17-0.260.310.23
0.650.830.110.380.460.44-0.13-0.46-0.05-0.050.30.460.08-0.39-0.760.36-0.18-0.43-0.440.60.13
0.760.830.280.360.770.560.16-0.080.010.010.390.41-0.04-0.72-0.50.54-0.19-0.12-0.010.810.38
0.40.110.280.130.50.240.530.36-0.62-0.620.00.17-0.23-0.53-0.260.54-0.080.06-0.28-0.120.3
0.420.380.360.130.16-0.06-0.04-0.23-0.32-0.32-0.230.51-0.45-0.19-0.48-0.06-0.29-0.25-0.310.07-0.28
0.640.460.770.50.160.840.570.30.080.080.390.49-0.05-0.57-0.130.790.01-0.130.110.620.65
0.310.440.560.24-0.060.840.50.230.330.330.490.640.21-0.15-0.10.780.25-0.390.090.580.69
0.13-0.130.160.53-0.040.570.50.470.210.210.490.430.17-0.260.280.78-0.05-0.010.310.020.77
-0.38-0.46-0.080.36-0.230.30.230.47-0.09-0.09-0.1-0.14-0.09-0.150.490.270.10.480.480.170.26
-0.19-0.050.01-0.62-0.320.080.330.21-0.091.00.690.120.450.260.350.240.26-0.230.550.340.54
-0.19-0.050.01-0.62-0.320.080.330.21-0.091.00.690.120.450.260.350.240.26-0.230.550.340.54
0.210.30.390.0-0.230.390.490.49-0.10.690.690.250.44-0.18-0.090.670.17-0.290.290.40.88
0.30.460.410.170.510.490.640.43-0.140.120.120.250.140.03-0.280.47-0.03-0.54-0.150.210.31
-0.240.08-0.04-0.23-0.45-0.050.210.17-0.090.450.450.440.140.260.160.170.08-0.180.040.140.32
-0.67-0.39-0.72-0.53-0.19-0.57-0.15-0.26-0.150.260.26-0.180.030.260.3-0.450.15-0.2-0.12-0.43-0.27
-0.46-0.76-0.5-0.26-0.48-0.13-0.10.280.490.350.35-0.09-0.280.160.3-0.19-0.10.560.69-0.160.09
0.380.360.540.54-0.060.790.780.780.270.240.240.670.470.17-0.45-0.190.17-0.320.060.380.86
-0.27-0.18-0.19-0.08-0.290.010.25-0.050.10.260.260.17-0.030.080.15-0.10.17-0.560.07-0.040.23
-0.17-0.43-0.120.06-0.25-0.13-0.39-0.010.48-0.23-0.23-0.29-0.54-0.18-0.20.56-0.32-0.560.480.03-0.21
-0.26-0.44-0.01-0.28-0.310.110.090.310.480.550.550.29-0.150.04-0.120.690.060.070.480.320.35
0.310.60.81-0.120.070.620.580.020.170.340.340.40.210.14-0.43-0.160.38-0.040.030.320.36
0.230.130.380.3-0.280.650.690.770.260.540.540.880.310.32-0.270.090.860.23-0.210.350.36
Click cells to compare fundamentals

An Additional Perspective On Alliance Resource

The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.41 B. Net Loss for the year was (138.89 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 656.76 M.
 2018 2019 2020 2021 (projected)
Book Value per Share9.049.7811.2512.17
Asset Turnover0.880.770.690.78

Another small decline for Alliance Resource

Recent risk adjusted performance is at 0.17. As of the 1st of February, Alliance Resource shows the Mean Deviation of 3.04, risk adjusted performance of 0.1671, and Downside Deviation of 3.69. Alliance Resource technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to analyze nineteen technical drivers for Alliance Resource Partners, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Alliance Resource downside deviation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the Jensen Alpha and downside variance to decide if Alliance Resource is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 5.03 per share. Given that Alliance Resource has jensen alpha of 0.6285, we suggest you to validate Alliance Resource Partners's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

The Current Takeaway on Alliance Resource Investment

Although many of the other players under the thermal coal industry are still a bit expensive, Alliance Resource may offer a potential longer-term growth to insiders. While some insiders may not share our view we believe that the current risk-reward utility is not appealing enough to do any trading. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Alliance Resource.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Alliance Resource Partners. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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