Ascena Story

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ASNA -- USA Stock  

USD 0.29  0.01  3.33%

While this unique economic environment continues, Ascena Retail may throw investors more surprises in two-three weeks. We will evaluate if Ascena Retail shares are reasonably priced going into October. Ascena Retail Group is presently traded for 0.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05. The average price elasticity to hype of competition is about 1.92. The firm is forecasted to decline in value after the next press release, with the price expected to drop to 0.23. The average volatility of headline impact on the company stock price is huge, making predictions on the news or social media along less reliable. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -17.86%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.99 percent. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next forecasted announcement will be in about 4 days.
Published over three months ago
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Will Ascena Retail (NMS:ASNA) price continue slipping?
We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on Ascena Retail Group. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time.
The successful prediction of Ascena Retail stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ascena Retail Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ascena Retail based on Ascena Retail hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Ascena Retail's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ascena Retail's related companies.

Watch out for price decline

Please consider monitoring Ascena Retail on a daily basis if you are holding a position in it. Ascena Retail is trading at a penny-stock level, and the possibility of delisting is much higher compared to other equities. However, just because the stock is trading under one dollar, does not mean it will be marked for deletion. Most exchanges require public instruments, such as Ascena Retail stock to be traded above the $1 level to remain listed. If Ascena Retail stock price falls below $1 for 30 consecutive trading days, the exchange can delist it. Once the company reaches this point, they will be sent an initial price violation notice directly from an exchange.

Use Technical Analysis to project Ascena expected Price

Ascena Retail technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Ascena Retail technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Ascena Retail trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How Ascena utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Ascena Retail, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Ascena Retail is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Ascena Retail cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Ascena Retail Net Cash Flow from Operations is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Net Cash Flow from Operations was at 266.15 Million

Ascena Retail exotic insider transaction detected

Legal trades by Ascena Retail insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Ascena insider trading alert for general transaction of option to buy by Trolaro Kevin Michael, VP Chief Accounting Officer, on 12th of August 2020. This event was filed by Ascena Retail Group Inc with SEC on 2020-08-12. Initial filing of beneficial ownership - SEC Form 3 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking it down a bit more

The big decline in price over the last few months for Ascena Retail Group could raise concerns from investors as the firm it trading at a share price of 0.28 on 131,715 in volume. The company management teams failed to add value to investors and positioning the firm supply of money to exploit market volatility in August. However, diversifying your holdings with Ascena Retail Group or any similar stocks can still protect your portfolios during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 19.97. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the Ascena Retail partners.

Deferred Revenue Breakdown

Ascena Retail Deferred Revenue is decreasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Ongoing Deferred Revenue is projected to grow to about 28.2 M this year. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. Ascena Retail Deferred Revenue is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Deferred Revenue was at 27.5 Million
2010
2019
2020
2010114.1 Million
201927.5 Million
202028.22 Million

Is Ascena Retail growth feasible after the slip?

Current skewness is at 4.14. Ascena Retail Group is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Investors should scrutinize Ascena Retail Group independently to ensure intended market timing strategies are aligned with expectations about Ascena Retail volatility. Ascena Retail Group is a potential penny stock. Although Ascena Retail may be in fact a good instrument to invest, many penny stocks are speculative in nature and are subject to artificial price hype. Please make sure you totally understand the upside potential and downside risk of investing in Ascena Retail Group. We encourage investors to look for the signals such us email spams, message board hypes, claims of breakthroughs, volume upswings, sudden news releases, promotions that are not reported, or demotions released before SEC filings. Please also check biographies and work history of current and past company officers before investing in high volatility instruments, penny stocks, or equities with microcap classification. You can indeed make money on this equity instrument if you perfectly time your entry and exit. However, remember that penny stocks that have been the subject of an artificial hype usually unable to maintain its increased share price for more than just a few days. The price of a promoted high volatility instrument will almost always revert back. The only way to increase shareholder value is through legitimate performance backed up by solid fundamentals.

Our Final Perspective on Ascena Retail

Whereas other entities in the apparel retail industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Ascena Retail may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. With a less-than optimistic outlook for your 30 days horizon, it may be a good time to trade some or all of your Ascena Retail holdings as it seems the potential growth was already fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Ascena Retail.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Ascena Retail Group. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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