| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 (projected) | AvalonBay Communities Cost of Revenue | 589,306,000 | 642,246,000 | 683,274,000 | 614,946,600 | 476,042,711 | AvalonBay Communities Consolidated Income | 697,327,000 | 741,733,000 | 1,033,708,000 | 930,337,200 | 654,605,053 |
Will AvalonBay Communities continue to go out of hand in June?
 | By Ellen Johnson | Macroaxis Story |
This firm chance of financial distress is now about 38.0 percent. What is AvalonBay Communities Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? Depending on normal probability distribution, the odds of AvalonBay Communities to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 9.51%. The AvalonBay Communities probability density function shows the probability of AvalonBay Communities Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Considering 30-days investment horizon, AvalonBay Communities has beta of 0.3402 . This suggests as returns on market go up, AvalonBay Communities average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding AvalonBay Communities will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally, the company has an alpha of 0.0381 implying that it can potentially generate 0.0381% excess return over S&P 500 after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin
AvalonBay Communities has beta of 0.69. As returns on market increase, AvalonBay Communities returns are expected to increase less than the market. However during bear market, the loss on holding AvalonBay Communities will be expected to be smaller as well. AvalonBay Communities dividends can provide a clue to current valuation of the stock. The firm one year expected dividend income is about $2.89 per share. Let me now go over AvalonBay Communities Price to Earning. Based on latest financial disclosure the price to earning indicator of AvalonBay Communities is roughly 28.03 times. This is 26.43% lower than that of the Real Estate sector, and about the same as REIT - Residential (which currently averages 28.0) industry, The Price to Earning for all stocks is 2.4% higher than the firm.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AvalonBay Communities. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AvalonBay Communities' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AvalonBay Communities' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AvalonBay Communities.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AvalonBay Communities. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Predictive Modules for AvalonBay Communities
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AvalonBay Communities' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
How important is AvalonBay Communities's Liquidity
AvalonBay Communities financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance AvalonBay Communities ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. AvalonBay Communities financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to AvalonBay Communities' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of AvalonBay Communities' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between AvalonBay Communities's total debt and its cash.
AvalonBay Communities Gross Profit
AvalonBay Communities Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing AvalonBay Communities previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show AvalonBay Communities Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check AvalonBay Communities' gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.
Another angle On AvalonBay Communities
The company reported last year revenue of 2.29B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1000M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 1.52B. The current investor indifference towards the small price fluctuations of AvalonBay Communities could raise concerns from investors as the firm closed today at a share price of 201.66 on 517184.000 in volume. The company directors and management did not add any value to AvalonBay Communities investors in April. However, most investors can still diversify their portfolios with AvalonBay Communities to hedge your portfolio against high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 0.9541. The very small Stock volatility is a good signal to investors with longer term investment horizons. AvalonBay Communities is trading at 203.74. This is 0.21 percent increase. Day Low was 201.66. AvalonBay Communities Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities is somewhat stable at the moment. Also, AvalonBay Communities Consolidated Income is increasing over the last 5 years. The previous year value of AvalonBay Communities Consolidated Income was 654,605,053.
Taking everything into account, our research shows that AvalonBay Communities is very steady with below average odds of distress in the next two years. Our present 'Buy vs. Hold vs. Sell' recommendation on the company is Strong Hold.
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