American Story

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AXL -- USA Stock  

USD 5.10  0.29  5.38%

In general, we focus on analyzing American (NYSE:AXL) price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build American Axle Manufacturing daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers. In this post we will summarize American Axle. I will address few reasons this entity was abused by stakeholders due to the current market volatility.
Published over a month ago
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Should I drop my American Axle (NYSE:AXL) holdings?
The company's average rating is Hold from 8 analysts. We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on American Axle Manufa. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. Earning per share calculations of the firm is based on official Zacks consensus of 4 analysts regarding American Axle's future annual earnings. Given the historical accuracy of 67.42%, the future earnings per share of the company is estimated to be -1.4825 with the lowest and highest values of -1.7 and -1.03, respectively. Please note that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for American Axle Manufa is an estimate of EPS before non-recurring items and including employee stock options expenses.
The successful prediction of American Axle stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Axle Manufacturing, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Axle based on American Axle hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to American Axle's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Axle's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project American expected Price

American Axle technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of American Axle technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of American Axle trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions. It is good to see analyst projects for American Axle, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Breaking down the case for American Axle

The new price hike of American Axle Manufa could raise concerns from stakeholders as the firm closed today at a share price of 6.39 on 3,356,630 in volume. The company directors and management may have good odds in positioning the firm resources to exploit market volatility in August. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 7.41. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the American Axle partners.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Receivables1.04 B966.5 M815.4 M675.53 M
Inventories392 M459.7 M373.6 M311.06 M

Deferred Revenue Breakdown

American Axle Deferred Revenue yearly trend continues to be relatively stable with very little volatility. Deferred Revenue may rise above about 108.1 M this year. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. American Axle Deferred Revenue is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Deferred Revenue is estimated at 108.1 Million
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
201393.4 Million
2014116.3 Million
201588.6 Million
201695.4 Million
2017112.9 Million
2018121.9 Million
2019102.6 Million
2020108.1 Million

American Axle has 55 percent chance to pull down under $7.2 in the coming weeks

American Axle new total risk alpha upsurges over 0.42. American Axle Manufacturing is displaying above-average volatility over the selected time horizon. Investors should scrutinize American Axle Manufacturing independently to ensure intended market timing strategies are aligned with expectations about American Axle volatility.

Our Final Perspective on American Axle

While many other companies in the auto parts industry are either recovering or due for a correction, American Axle may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. With a relatively neutral outlook on the new economy, it is better to hold off any trading of American as the current risk-reward utility is not appealing enough. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to American Axle.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of American Axle Manufacturing. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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