Aspen Story

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AZPN -- USA Stock  

USD 150.28  1.33  0.88%

As many millenniums are trying to avoid technology space, it makes sense to outline Aspen Technology a little further and try to understand its current market patterns. We will evaluate why recent Aspen Technology price moves suggest a bounce in February. Is the firm valuation justified? Here I will cover 2021 perspective on the current valuation of Aspen Technology to give you a better outlook on taking a possible position in this stock.
Published over a month ago
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Is Aspen Technology well positioned for February economic uncertainties?
The company currently holds 462.12 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.91, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Aspen Technology is OVERVALUED at 126.25 per share with modest projections ahead.
We determine the current worth of Aspen Technology using both absolute as well as relative valuation methodologies to arrive at its intrinsic value. In general, an absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to this company, attempts to find the value of Aspen Technology based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing Aspen Technology's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, operating cash flow, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Aspen Technology's intrinsic value. In some cases, mostly for established, large-cap companies, we also incorporate more traditional valuation methods such as dividend discount, discounted cash flow, or asset-based models. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Aspen Technology. We calculate exposure to Aspen Technology's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Aspen Technology's related companies.

Aspen Technology Investment Alerts

Aspen investment alerts and warnings help investors to get more proficient at understanding not only critical technical and fundamental signals but also the significant portfolio-centered indicators. These indicators include beta, alpha, and other risk-related measures that will help you in monitoring Aspen Technology performance across your portfolios.Please check all investment alerts for Aspen

Aspen Technology Valuation Ratios as Compared to Competition

Our valuation model uses many indicators to compare Aspen value to that of its competitors to determine the firm's financial worth. You can analyze the relationship between different fundamental ratios across Aspen Technology competition to find correlations between indicators driving the intrinsic value of Aspen.

How Aspen utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Aspen Technology, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Aspen Technology is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Aspen Technology cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.
Aspen Technology Net Cash Flow from Operations is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Net Cash Flow from Operations is estimated at 240.39 Million

Acquisition by Simon Gann of 563 shares of Aspen Technology subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Aspen Technology insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Aspen insider trading alert for grant of common stock by Simon Gann, the corporate stakeholder, on 2nd of February 2021. This event was filed by Aspen Technology Inc with SEC on 2021-02-02. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking it down a bit more

Aspen Technology reported the previous year's revenue of 573.51 M. Net Income was 208.87 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 537.11 M.

Margins Breakdown

Aspen profit margins show the degree to which it makes money. Margin indicators are used not only by investors but also by creditors or Aspen Technology itself as indicators of financial health and management effectiveness. Please look more closely at the different varieties of Aspen Technology profit margins.
Operating Margin41.74
EBITDA Margin0.65
Gross Margin1.03
Profit Margin0.47


Aspen Technology Average Assets is increasing over the last 8 years. The latest value of Aspen Technology Average Assets is 1,370,937,743. Moreover, Aspen Technology Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA is quite stable at the moment.

Aspen Technology has 81 percent chance to finish below $139 next week

The treynor ratio is down to -5.53 as of today. As of the 26th of January, Aspen Technology shows the Downside Deviation of 2.07, risk adjusted performance of 0.069, and Mean Deviation of 1.51. Aspen Technology technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to interpolate nineteen technical drivers for Aspen Technology, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Aspen Technology coefficient of variation, treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the Treynor Ratio and semi variance to decide if Aspen Technology is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 142.17 per share. Given that Aspen Technology has jensen alpha of 0.1304, we suggest you to validate Aspen Technology's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Final Takeaway

Whereas some firms in the software?application industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Aspen Technology may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. While some institutional investors may not share our view we believe it may be a good time to trade Aspen as the risk-reward trade off is not appealing enough to hold a position. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Aspen Technology.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Aspen Technology. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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