Barnes Story

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B -- USA Stock  

USD 48.91  0.86  1.73%

Today's article will go over Barnes. We will evaluate why recent Barnes price moves suggest a bounce in November. As of October 23, 2020, the company is listed at 40.89. Barnes Group has historical hype elasticity of 0.01. The average price elasticity to hype of competition is about 0.08. The entity is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price going to jump to 40.51. The current volatility of media hype impact on Barnes stock price is is way over 100 percent making price predictions on social media along less reliable. The price jump on the next news is estimated to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Barnes is about 426.6% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 40.97 Taking into account the 30-days investment horizon, the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Published over a month ago
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Should I quit my Barnes (NYSE:B) position?
Barnes has performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.1721, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Barnes's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Barnes returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Barnes will be expected to be smaller as well. Although it is extremely important to respect Barnes Group historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy towards foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Barnes Group technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.14% will be sustainable into the future. Barnes Group right now shows a risk of 2.47%. Please confirm Barnes Group total risk alpha, value at risk, expected short fall, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and downside variance to decide if Barnes Group will be following its price patterns.
The successful prediction of Barnes stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Barnes Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Barnes based on Barnes hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Barnes's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Barnes's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Barnes expected Price

Barnes technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Barnes technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Barnes trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How Barnes utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Barnes, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Barnes is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Barnes cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Barnes Net Cash Flow from Operations is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Net Cash Flow from Operations was at 248.3 Million

Barnes exotic insider transaction detected

Legal trades by Barnes insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Barnes insider trading alert for general transaction of common stock by Thomas Barnes, the corporate stakeholder, on 13th of November 2020. This event was filed by Barnes Group Inc with SEC on 2020-11-13. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4. Thomas Barnes currently serves as independent chairman of the board of Barnes Group [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

What is driving Barnes Investor Appetite?

The modest gains experienced by current holders of Barnes could raise concerns from investors as the firm it trading at a share price of 40.89 on slow start in volume. The company directors and management have been quite successful in maneuvering the stock at opportune times to take advantage of all market conditions in September. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 2.47. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in September 2020 as well as with Barnes unsystematic, company-specific events.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.420.780.650.56
Interest Coverage14.4313.7611.4611.29

Cost of Revenue Breakdown

Barnes Cost of Revenue is increasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Ongoing Cost of Revenue is projected to grow to about 947.5 M this year. Cost of Revenue usually refers to the aggregate cost of goods produced and sold and services rendered during the reporting period. Barnes Cost of Revenue is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Cost of Revenue was at 944.15 Million
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2013738.17 Million
2014829.65 Million
2015782.82 Million
2016788.73 Million
2017943.78 Million
2018963.52 Million
2019944.15 Million
2020947.53 Million

Barnes showing appearance of lower volatility

Current treynor ratio is at 0.41. Barnes Group currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.01 and Jensen Alpha of 0.05. However, we do advice investors to further question Barnes Group expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Our Final Takeaway

Whereas other entities under the specialty industrial machinery industry are still a bit expensive, Barnes may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. To conclude, as of the 23rd of October 2020, we believe Barnes is currently overvalued. It barely shadows the market and projects below average probability of financial unrest in the next two years. Our actual 30 days Buy-Hold-Sell recommendation on the company is Cautious Hold.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Barnes Group. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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