Big Lots Story

BIG -- USA Stock  

Fiscal Quarter End: October 31, 2019  

Macroaxis News
By Ellen Johnson
In this write-up I will digest Big Lots. I will look into why despite ongoing dip, the longer-term fundamental drivers of the firm are still sound. Big Lots moves slightly opposite to market. The returns on the market and returns on Big Lots appear slightly-related for the last few months. Unsteady fundamental drivers of the firm may also indicate signs of longer-term losses for the firm shareholders. What is Big Lots Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? Pertaining to normal probability distribution, the odds of Big Lots to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 53.98%. The Big Lots probability density function shows the probability of Big Lots Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Considering 30-days investment horizon, Big Lots has beta of -0.5339 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Big Lots are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Big Lots is likely to outperform the market. Additionally, the company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Big Lots is significantly underperforming Russell 2000 .
Big Lots dips 1.36

This firm average rating is Hold from 8 analysts. As of 14 of September Big Lots shows Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.13) and Mean Deviation of 2.08. Big Lots technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm future prices. In plain English you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum or the prices will eventually revert. We found nineteen technical drivers for Big Lots which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Big Lots Coefficient Of Variation, Maximum Drawdown, Skewness, as well as the relationship between Information Ratio and Downside Variance to decide if Big Lots is priced correctly providing market reflects its regular price of 22.44 per share. Given that Big Lots has Jensen Alpha of (0.31), we suggest you validate Big Lots prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at future point.

The recent decline in stock price could raise concerns from investors as the firm closed today at a share price of 22.44 on 1 in volume. The company directors and management have failed to build on market volatilities in August. However, diversifying your overall positions with Big Lots may protect your principal portfolio during upcoming market swings. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 2.7959. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in August 2019 as well as with Big Lots unsystematic, company specific events. Big Lots preserves 7.83x of price to earning. Big Lots is trading at 22.44 which is 1.36 percent decrease. Today lowest is 22.44. Big Lots Return on Sales is increasing over the last 4 years. Big Lots Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is increasing over the last 4 years. Additionally, Big Lots Net Loss Income from Discontinued Operations is decreasing over the last 4 years.

To sum up, our prevailing buy-sell advice on the firm is Strong Sell. Big Lots is currently undervalued with below average probability of distress for the next two years.

Big Lots Competition Technical Indicators

At Risk
 0.92  0.12  0.10  0.15  1.10  0.1 (0.96)  1.82 (2.11)  7.12 
 1.05  0.19  0.17  0.22  0.94  0.11 (1.22)  2.08 (1.97)  13.60 
 1.47  0.23  0.15  0.18  1.43  0.08 (1.74)  2.69 (2.50)  20.37 
 0.57  0.15  0.00 (0.67)  0.00  0.07  0.00  0.00  0.00  26.60 
 9.97  1.74  0.06 (0.34)  12.46  0.08 (34.55)  32.45 (20.00)  160.00 
 20.09  2.83  0.08  1.54  19.21  0.08 (53.75)  100.00 (50.00)  150.00 
 2.23 (0.20)  0.00 (0.17)  0.00 (0.07)  0.00  3.73 (5.14)  14.46 
 2.30 (0.38)  0.00 (0.49)  0.00 (0.09)  0.00  3.77 (4.07)  30.92 
 4.04  1.17  0.06  2.60  5.50  0.12 (15.98)  10.65 (5.47)  61.79 
 1.34  0.09  0.05  0.08  1.79  0.05 (1.39)  2.95 (3.05)  7.04 

Payment of 3057 shares by Michael Schlonsky of Big Lots subject to Rule 16b-3

Big Lots insider trading alert for payment of common stock by Michael Schlonsky, Executive Vice President, on October 17, 2019. This event was filed by Big Lots Inc with SEC on 2018-03-13. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4. Michael Schlonsky is currently serves as executive vice president - human resources and store operations of Big Lots [view details]   

About Contributor

Ellen Johnson
   Ellen Johnson is a Member of Macroaxs Editorial Board. Ellen covers public companies in North America focusing primarily on valuation and volatility. Six years of experience in predictive investment analytics and risk management. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered as solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Big Lots. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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Filed transaction by Big Lots Inc officer. Exercise or conversion of derivative security exempted pursuant to Rule 16b-3

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Cash and Equivalents

Cash and Equivalents Comparative Analysis

  Cash and Equivalents 
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Big Lots is rated below average in cash and equivalents category among related companies. Cash or Cash Equivalents are the most liquid of all assets found on company's balance sheet. It is used in calculating many of the firm's liquidity ratios and is a good indicator of overall financial health of a company. Companies with a lot of cash are usually attractive takeover targets. Cash Equivalents are balance sheet items that are typically reported using currency printed on notes.
Check also Big Lots Hype Analysis, Big Lots Correlation and Big Lots Performance. Please also try Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.