Big Lots Story

BIG -- USA Stock

USD 65.05 10.78 19.86%

Macroaxis Story

As many millenniums are trying to avoid consumer defensive space, it makes sense to digest Big Lots a little further and try to understand its current market patterns. As we have suggested previously, Big Lots is beginning its dip as shareholders shift to be more bearish due to the increased sector volatility. The returns on the market and returns on Big Lots appear slightly-related for the last few months. Unsteady essential indicators of the firm may also indicate signs of longer-term losses for Big Lots shareholders. Big Lots is scheduled to announce its earnings today. The next earnings report is expected on the 25th of February 2021. The stock experiences an active downward rally.

Published over a month ago

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Will Big Lots (NYSE:BIG) continue to dip in January?

The entity's average rating is Hold from 7 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Big Lots market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Big Lots. Let us look at a few aspects of Big Lots technical analysis. Earning per share calculations of Big Lots is based on official Zacks consensus of 5 analysts regarding Big Lots' future annual earnings. Given the historical accuracy of 67.87%, the future earnings per share of the company is estimated to be 7.725 with the lowest and highest values of 7.3 and 8.13, respectively. Please note that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for the firm is an estimate of EPS before non-recurring items and including employee stock options expenses.

Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Big Lots. In general, we focus on analyzing Big Lots stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Big Lots's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Big Lots's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Big Lots, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Big Lots price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Big Lots' stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Big Lots in the context of predictive analytics.

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Big Lots. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Big Lots' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Big Lots' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Big Lots.

How does Big Lots Stands against Peers?

Analyzing Big Lots competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Big Lots across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.

Check out Big Lots Competition Details

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions. It is good to see analyst projects for Big Lots, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Closer look at Big Lots Standard Deviation

Big Lots has current Standard Deviation of 3.16. The Standard Deviation is a measure of how spread out the prices or returns of an asset are on average. It is the most widely used risk indicator in the field of investing and finance. Standard Deviation is commonly used to measure confidence in statistical conclusions regarding certain equity instruments or portfolios of equities.

Standard deviation is applied to the annual rate of return of an investment to measure the investment's volatility. Standard deviation is also known as historical volatility and is used by investors as a gauge for the amount of expected market volatility. A large standard deviation usually indicates that the data points are far from the mean and a small standard deviation indicates that they are clustered closely around the mean.

Standard Deviation

SQRT(V)

3.16

SQRT	=	Square root notation
V	=	Variance of Big Lots returns

Let's now compare Big Lots Standard Deviation to its closest peers:

BIG

DLTR

	BIG	3.16
	BJ	2.85
	DG	1.44
	DLTR	2.24

Chances of Big Lots to fall back

The market risk adjusted performance is down to -0.39 as of today. Big Lots shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Big Lots further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Big Lots future alpha.

Our Bottom Line On Big Lots

Although many of the other players in the discount stores industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Big Lots may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. While some next week oriented shareholders may not share our view, we believe it may not be a good time to trade new shares of Big Lots.

About Contributor

Raphi Shpitalnik is a Junior Member of Macroaxs Editorial Board. Raphael is a young entrepreneur who joined Macroaxis on a part-time base at the beginning of the pandemic and eventually acquired a real test for investing and fintech. He likes to analyze different equity instruments across a wide range of industries, focusing primarily on consumer products, sports, fintech, cannabis, and AI. View Profile

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Big Lots. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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Big Lots Story

USD 65.05 10.78 19.86%

How does Big Lots Stands against Peers?

What do experts say?

Closer look at Big Lots Standard Deviation

Chances of Big Lots to fall back

Our Bottom Line On Big Lots

About Contributor

Would you like to provide feedback on the content of this article?

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