When should you exit your Box (USA Stocks:BOX) holdings?

Opportunity often comes dressed in overalls, and it seems to be knocking on the door of Box Inc., a key player in the Software - Infrastructure industry. Despite the recent loss indicated by a Period Momentum Indicator of -0.04, the company's stock presents a compelling investment opportunity. The Valuation Real Value stands at 29, significantly higher than the current market value of 26.4, suggesting that the stock is undervalued. Furthermore, the Analyst Overall Consensus leans towards a 'Buy', with the estimated target price at a promising 31.5. The key to unlocking potential returns may just lie in Box Inc. stock. In this analysis, we'll examine Box Inc. Despite recent challenges, we remain optimistic about a potential recovery. As of July 1st, the company's stock traded at $26.40. Historically, Box Inc has a hype elasticity of 0.02, while the average price elasticity to competitor hype is approximately -0.1. It's predicted that the company's value will increase following the next headline, with the stock price expected to rise to $26.51. However, the current volatility of media hype impact on Box's stock price exceeds 100%, making social media-based price predictions less reliable. The anticipated price increase following the next news is projected to be 0.08%, while the current daily expected return stands at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Box is about 159.25%, with an expected price of $26.3 after the next competitor announcement. Given a 90-day investment horizon, the next press release is estimated to be in about 8 days.
Published over two weeks ago
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

Box Inc. is rated as a 'Buy' on average by 10 analysts. Our investment recommendation module supports this consensus, analyzing the company's growth potential using all available fundamental, technical, and market-related data.

Main Takeaways

Box Inc., a key player in the Software - Infrastructure industry, presents an enticing investment opportunity with its current quote at $26.4. Despite a slight price change of -0.04, the company's daily volume stands at a robust 1.5M, indicating a strong market interest. However, potential investors should be aware of the company's total risk alpha of -0.06, suggesting a potential for loss. Nevertheless, with an accumulation distribution of 16.3K, Box Inc. showcases a promising hype investment opportunity for those willing to navigate the risks.
The successful prediction of Box stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Box Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Box based on Box hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Box's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Box's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Box expected Price

Box technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Box technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Box trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

Box Gross Profit

Box Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Box previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Box Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Box's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

A Deeper look at Box

The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.04 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 129.03 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 738.32 M.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short Long Term Debt Total642.3M564.4M491.8M293.7M
Total Assets1.4B1.2B1.2B849.4M

Current Deferred Revenue Breakdown

Box Current Deferred Revenue yearly trend continues to be fairly stable with very little volatility. Current Deferred Revenue will likely drop to about 343.3 M in 2024. Current Deferred Revenue usually refers to revenue that has been collected but not yet earned, typically from prepaid service contracts or subscriptions. This amount is considered a liability until the service is provided or the subscription period ends. At this time, Box's Current Deferred Revenue is fairly stable compared to the past year.
2017291.9 Million
2018353.59 Million
2019407.49 Million
2020443.93 Million
2021519.49 Million
2022544.18 Million
2023562.86 Million
2024343.25 Million
"Fortune favors the bold," and Box Inc. is a bold opportunity for investors seeking potential returns. With a market capitalization of $3.83 billion and a robust gross profit of $738.32 million, Box Inc. demonstrates strong financial health. The company's cash flow from operations stands at a solid $318.73 million, further underscoring its financial stability. Despite a slight risk with a probability of bankruptcy at 12.61%, the potential upside of 1.87 and a target price of $30.43 suggest promising returns. With 98.42% of shares owned by institutions, Box Inc. is a stock that has caught the attention of savvy investors, and it may be time for you to unlock its potential.

Box is projected to stay under $27 in August

Box Inc's stock is currently underperforming, with a risk-adjusted performance of -0.39, indicating a higher risk relative to potential return. This suggests that the stock may not provide satisfactory returns given its volatility and inherent risk. It's projected that Box Inc's stock will continue to struggle in the short term, likely maintaining a price below $27 throughout August. Investors should consider this high-risk factor before investing. Box Inc's stock exhibits low volatility with a skewness of 1.96 and kurtosis of 10.31. Understanding market volatility trends can help investors time the market. Using volatility indicators properly allows traders to measure Box's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The increased volatility of bear markets can impact Box's stock price and stress investors as they see their shares' value decrease, often prompting portfolio rebalancing.

Our Bottom Line On Box Inc

While some other firms in the software—infrastructure industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Box may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. With a somewhat neutral outlook on your 90 days horizon, it may be better to hold off any trading activity and neither buy new shares of Box nor drop your existing holdings in the Stock. It seems the expected volatility has not yet been fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Box.

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Editorial Staff

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