Popular has
performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 1.6113, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Popular's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Popular will likely underperform. Although it is extremely important to respect
Popular current trending patterns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity existing
price patterns. The philosophy towards forecasting
future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all
available fundamental and
technical indicators. By analyzing
Popular technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.11% will be sustainable into the future.
Popular right now holds a risk of 2.03%. Please check Popular
semi variance, and the
relationship between the
treynor ratio and
daily balance of power to decide if Popular will be following its historical
price patterns.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as
predicting future values of individual securities such as Popular. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the
market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Predictive Modules for Popular
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed
many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Popular's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Popular. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Popular's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Popular's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Popular.
How important is Popular's Liquidity
Popular
financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Popular ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Popular financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Popular's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Popular's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the
breakdown between Popular's total debt and its cash.
Popular Gross Profit
Popular Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Popular previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Popular Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Popular's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
A Deeper look at Popular
Popular currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.09 and Jensen Alpha of 0.22. However, we advise investors to further question Popular expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Popular's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Popular's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
Popular Implied Volatility
Popular's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Popular stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Popular's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Popular stock will not fluctuate a lot when Popular's options are near their expiration.
Returns Breakdown
| Return on Assets | 0.009763 |
| Return on Equity | 0.0942 |
| Return Capital | 0.0124 |
| Return on Sales | 0.29 |
Will Popular decline impact its fundamentals?
The kurtosis is down to 1.05 as of today. Popular currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.09 and Jensen Alpha of 0.22. However, we advise investors to further question Popular expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Popular's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Popular's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
Popular Implied Volatility
Popular's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Popular stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Popular's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Popular stock will not fluctuate a lot when Popular's options are near their expiration.
Our Final Takeaway
Although few other entities under the banks—regional industry are still a bit expensive, Popular may offer a potential longer-term growth to insiders. While some insiders may not share our view, we believe it may be a good time to increase your existing holdings in Popular as the risk-reward trade off is appealing enough to hold a position. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Popular.
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Vlad Skutelnik is a Macroaxis Contributor. Vlad covers stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs that are traded in North America, focusing primarily on fundamentals, valuation and market volatility. He has many years of experience in fintech, predictive investment analytics, and risk management.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Popular. Please refer to our
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