Blackstone Story

Closer look at Blackstone Mortgage Variance

Blackstone Mortgage Trust has current Variance of 7.21. Variance is another measure of security risk that shows the amount of dispersion of equity returns around their mean value. Variance is calculated as the average squared deviations from the mean. Evaluating a set of investment alternatives one can use variance to help determine the volatility when purchasing a specific security. Similar to Standard Deviation, the variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out around its mean.

Variance is also a measure of stock volatility and can help determine the risk an investor might take on when purchasing a specific security. A relatively big variance indicates that the daily prices or returns are far from the mean and a small variance indicates that they are located around the mean.

Variance   =  SUM(RET DEV)2  N

=

7.21

SUM	=	Summation notation
RET DEV	=	Actual returns deviation over selected period
N	=	Number of points for the period

Let's now compare Blackstone Mortgage Variance to its closest peers:

	BXMT	7.2128336482109585
	DX	1.73
	EARN	3.34
	FREVS	10.97
	ABR	4.4

Our Blackstone analysis implies possible reversion in March

Newest downside variance is at 4.01. Blackstone Mortgage Trust has relatively low volatility with skewness of 1.69 and kurtosis of 6.6. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Blackstone Mortgage Trust to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns.

Whereas other companies under the reit?mortgage industry are still a bit expensive, Blackstone Mortgage may offer a potential longer-term growth to private investors. The bottom line, as of the 10th of February 2021, we see that Blackstone Mortgage almost neglects market trends. The firm is overvalued with below average probability of financial unrest within the next 24 months. Our final 30 days recommendation on the firm is Hold.