The company's average rating is Buy from 4 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Blackstone Mortgage market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Blackstone. Let us look at a few aspects of Blackstone technical analysis.
Using predictive
technical analysis, we can analyze different prices and returns patterns and
diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Blackstone Mortgage Trust. In general, sophisticated investors focus on analyzing Blackstone Mortgage stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. They apply predictive analytics to build Blackstone Mortgage's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as
momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional
technical analysis and
fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of
Blackstone Mortgage's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Blackstone Mortgage, many experienced traders also check how macroeconomic factors affect Blackstone Mortgage price patterns. Please read more on our
technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed
many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blackstone Mortgage's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Blackstone Mortgage. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Blackstone Mortgage's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Blackstone Mortgage's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Blackstone Mortgage Trust.
How important is Blackstone Mortgage's Liquidity
Blackstone Mortgage
financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Blackstone Mortgage Trust ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Blackstone Mortgage financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Blackstone Mortgage's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Blackstone Mortgage's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the
breakdown between Blackstone Mortgage's total debt and its cash.
Blackstone Mortgage Gross Profit
Blackstone Mortgage Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Blackstone Mortgage previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Blackstone Mortgage Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Blackstone Mortgage's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Closer look at Blackstone Mortgage Variance
Blackstone Mortgage Trust has current Variance of 7.21. Variance is another measure of security risk that shows the amount of dispersion of equity returns around their mean value. Variance is calculated as the average squared deviations from the mean. Evaluating a set of investment alternatives one can use variance to help determine the volatility when purchasing a specific security. Similar to Standard Deviation, the variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out around its mean.
Variance is also a measure of stock volatility and can help determine the risk an investor might take on when purchasing a specific security. A relatively big variance indicates that the daily prices or returns are far from the mean and a small variance indicates that they are located around the mean.
Variance | = | SUM(RET DEV)2 N |
| = | 7.21 |
| SUM | = | Summation notation |
| RET DEV | = | Actual returns deviation over selected period |
| N | = | Number of points for the period |
Let's now compare Blackstone Mortgage Variance to its closest peers:
| BXMT | 7.2128336482109585 |
| DX | 1.73 |
| EARN | 3.34 |
| FREVS | 10.97 |
| ABR | 4.4 |
Our Blackstone analysis implies possible reversion in March
Newest downside variance is at 4.01. Blackstone Mortgage Trust has relatively low volatility with skewness of 1.69 and kurtosis of 6.6. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Blackstone Mortgage Trust to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns.
Whereas other companies under the reit—mortgage industry are still a bit expensive, Blackstone Mortgage may offer a potential longer-term growth to private investors. The bottom line, as of the 10th of February 2021, we see that Blackstone Mortgage almost neglects market trends. The firm is
overvalued with
below average probability of financial unrest within the next 24 months. Our final 30 days recommendation on the firm is
Hold.
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Vlad Skutelnik is a Macroaxis Contributor. Vlad covers stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs that are traded in North America, focusing primarily on fundamentals, valuation and market volatility. He has many years of experience in fintech, predictive investment analytics, and risk management.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Blackstone Mortgage Trust. Please refer to our
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