When should you exit your Citigroup (USA Stocks:C) holdings?

The current buzz around Citigroup (USA Stocks:C) is hard to ignore, with the market valuation standing at a robust $60.06 billion. The diversified banking giant is showing strong momentum indicators, currently at 0.73, indicating an upward trend in the stock. Analysts' consensus indicates a 'Buy' with eight strong buys and six buys against nine holds. The accumulation distribution of 0.0233 also suggests a favorable investment climate. However, as with any investment, it's crucial to know when to rebalance your portfolio. Given the possible upside price of $59.6 against the downside of $56.28, and a daily balance of power of 0.5214, now may be an optimal time to review your Citigroup holdings. In the current unique economic climate, Citigroup may surprise investors in the coming week. We will examine why recent price movements suggest a potential rise in July. As of June 18, 2024, Citigroup's stock is priced at 60.06. Historically, Citigroup's hype elasticity is -0.05, compared to the competition's average of -0.01. The company's stock price is expected to remain stable, regardless of the next headline, with a predicted minimal immediate return on news and a daily expected return of 0.03%. The volatility of Citigroup's hype elasticity is approximately 867.16%, with a similar volatility level for related hype. The anticipated price after the next competitor announcement is 60.05. Considering a 90-day investment horizon, the next forecasted press release is expected in about 7 days.
Published over three weeks ago
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

Citigroup has an average 'Buy' rating from 23 analysts. Macroaxis offers an impartial investment recommendation on Citigroup, intended to supplement the current consensus of analysts and experts. Our trading advice engine evaluates the company's growth potential solely based on an investor's current risk tolerance and investment horizon.

Main Ideas

With a Total Risk Alpha of 0.1392 and a Mean Deviation of 1.13, Citigroup's stock shows potential for significant returns. However, investors should be aware of the potential downside, as the Value At Risk stands at a loss of 2.12. Therefore, the optimal time to rebalance your Citigroup portfolio would be when the stock's potential upside of 2.02 outweighs the potential downside risk.
The successful prediction of Citigroup stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Citigroup, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Citigroup based on Citigroup hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Citigroup's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Citigroup's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Citigroup expected Price

Citigroup technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Citigroup technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Citigroup trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

Citigroup Gross Profit

Citigroup Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Citigroup previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Citigroup Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Citigroup's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Is Citigroup valued correctly by the market?

The entity reported the annual revenue of 78.49 B. Net Income to common stockholders was 9.05 B with gross profit before all taxes, overhead, and interest of 70.56 B.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Short Long Term Debt Total282.3B318.7B594.3B624.0B
Total Assets2.3T2.4T2.4T1.4T

Current Deferred Revenue Breakdown

Citigroup's Current Deferred Revenue is decreasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Current Deferred Revenue is expected to dwindle to about 77.6 B. Current Deferred Revenue usually refers to revenue that has been collected but not yet earned, typically from prepaid service contracts or subscriptions. This amount is considered a liability until the service is provided or the subscription period ends. At present, Citigroup's Current Deferred Revenue is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting.
2010
2023
2024
201097.01 Billion
202387.31 Billion
202477.61 Billion
As Warren Buffet wisely said, "Price is what you pay, value is what you get." With Citigroup's (USA Stocks:C) book value per share at a robust 99.08X and a price to earnings ratio of just 6.50X, the stock presents an intriguing value proposition. However, investors should be cautious as the downside variance stands at 3.02, indicating potential volatility. The company's market capitalization is at $113.17B, with institutions owning a significant 71.62% of the shares. Given these factors, the optimal time to rebalance your Citigroup portfolio would be when the market price is close to the book value per share, ensuring you get the most value for your investment.

Possible July turnaround of Citigroup?

Citigroup's recent downside variance has risen over 3.02, suggesting an increased risk level for the stock. However, this could present a buying opportunity for risk-tolerant investors, as heightened volatility often precedes a price reversal. Given current market dynamics, a potential turnaround for Citigroup could occur in July. Investors should monitor the stock's performance and market trends to capitalize on any potential upswing. Citigroup's relatively low volatility, with a skewness of -0.02 and kurtosis of 3.23, is noteworthy. Understanding market volatility trends can help investors time the market.
Using volatility indicators properly allows traders to measure Citigroup's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The increased volatility in bear markets can directly affect Citigroup's stock price, causing investor stress as share values drop, often leading to portfolio rebalancing with diverse financial instruments.In conclusion, the recent ascent of Citigroup (USA Stocks:C) stock, gaining more than 1 percent, appears to be a positive sign for potential investors. With an Analyst Overall Consensus indicating a 'Buy' rating, it seems the market is optimistic about this stock. Furthermore, the high number of 'Strong Buys' from analysts, standing at 8, also adds to this positive sentiment. However, investors should also consider the possibility of downside risk, as the Posible Downside Price is set at 56.28. It is worth noting that the Analyst Target Price Estimated Value is 49.48, which is lower than the current Valuation Market Value of 60.06. In light of these factors, while the immediate trend seems positive, careful consideration should be given to the potential volatility and downside risks..

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Citigroup. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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