Our current technical analysis of Carlyle Group (USA Stocks:CG)

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CG Stock  USD 31.71  1.42  4.69%   
Aina Ster
By Aina Ster
Macroaxis Story
While some of us are excited about capital markets space, it makes sense to concentrate on Carlyle Group in greater detail to make a better perception of its potential. As expected, Carlyle is starting to reaffirm its true potential as stockholders are becoming more and more confident in the future outlook. Much of the drifts of the company stock price movements has been an effusion of what is happening in the market overall. Stable technical and fundamental indicators of the company may also hint to signals of long-run gains for Carlyle stockholders. Carlyle Group is scheduled to announce its earnings today.
Published over a month ago
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Reviewed by Rifka Kats

This firm's average rating is Buy from 11 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Carlyle market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Carlyle. Let us look at a few aspects of Carlyle technical analysis.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Carlyle Group. In general, we focus on analyzing Carlyle stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Carlyle's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Carlyle's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Carlyle, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Carlyle price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carlyle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Carlyle in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
Details
Naive
Forecast
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Carlyle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Carlyle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Carlyle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Carlyle Group.

How important is Carlyle's Liquidity

Carlyle financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Carlyle Group ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Carlyle financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Please check the breakdown between Carlyle's total debt and its cash.

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions.
It is good to see analyst projects for Carlyle, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Closer look at Carlyle Variance

Carlyle Group has current Variance of 7.8. Variance is another measure of security risk that shows the amount of dispersion of equity returns around their mean value. Variance is calculated as the average squared deviations from the mean. Evaluating a set of investment alternatives one can use variance to help determine the volatility when purchasing a specific security. Similar to Standard Deviation, the variance is a measure of how far a set of numbers is spread out around its mean.

Variance is also a measure of stock volatility and can help determine the risk an investor might take on when purchasing a specific security. A relatively big variance indicates that the daily prices or returns are far from the mean and a small variance indicates that they are located around the mean.

Variance 
 = 
SUM(RET DEV)2 
N 
 = 
7.8
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Actual returns deviation over selected period
N = Number of points for the period
Let's now compare Carlyle Variance to its closest peers:
CG
ZM
ICL
AL
UZE
CG7.804724582377635
ZM13.13
ICL6.13
AL2.86
UZE6.03

Momentum Analysis of Carlyle suggests possible reversal in March

Current semi deviation is at 2.14.
As of the 7th of February, Carlyle shows the Downside Deviation of 2.52, mean deviation of 2.01, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1656. Carlyle Group technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to analyze and collect data for nineteen technical drivers for Carlyle Group, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Carlyle Group value at risk, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and semi variance to decide if Carlyle Group is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 36.4 per share. Given that Carlyle has jensen alpha of 0.3394, we suggest you to validate Carlyle Group's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Final Perspective on Carlyle

While some firms under the asset management industry are still a bit expensive, Carlyle may offer a potential longer-term growth to stockholders. With an optimistic outlook on your 90 days horizon, it may be a good time to pick up new shares of Carlyle or increase your existing holdings in the Stock as it seems the potential growth has not yet been fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Carlyle.

Editorial Staff

Aina Ster is a Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board. Aina delivers weekly perspective on ongoing market and economic trends, analysis and tips from predictive analysis to forecasting across various financial instruments. View Profile
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Aina Ster do not own shares of Carlyle Group. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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