CRNC Cerence stock Story

CRNC -  USA Stock  

USD 109.14  3.78  3.35%

As many millenniums are trying to avoid technology space, it makes sense to go over Cerence a little further and try to understand its current market patterns. As expected, Cerence is starting to reaffirm its true potential as investors are becoming more and more confident in the future outlook. The returns on the market and returns on Cerence appear slightly correlated for the last few months. Weak basic indicators of the company may also suggest signs of long term losses for Cerence investors. Cerence is scheduled to announce its earnings today.
Published over six months ago
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Our current technical analysis of Cerence (NASDAQ:CRNC)
This firm's average rating is Buy from 6 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Cerence market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Cerence. Let us look at a few aspects of Cerence technical analysis.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Cerence. In general, we focus on analyzing Cerence stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Cerence's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Cerence's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Cerence, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Cerence price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Cerence's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Cerence in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Cerence. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Cerence's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Cerence's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Cerence.

How does CRNC Cerence Stands against Peers?

Analyzing Cerence competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Cerence across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out Cerence Competition Details

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions.
It is good to see analyst projects for Cerence, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Sale by Dhawan Sanjay of 1612 shares of Cerence

Legal trades by Cerence insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
CRNC insider trading alert for sale of common stock by Dhawan Sanjay, Chief Executive Officer, on 17th of June 2021. This event was filed by Cerence Inc with SEC on 2021-06-17. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Closer look at Cerence Downside Variance

Cerence has current Downside Variance of 14.45. Downside Variance (or DV) is measured by target semi-variance and is termed downside volatility. It is expressed in percentages and therefore allows for rankings in the same way as variance. One way to view downside volatility is the annualized variance of returns below the target.

Downside Variance is the probability-weighted squared below-target returns. The squaring of the below-target returns has the effect of penalizing failures at an exponential rate. This is consistent with observations made on the behavior of individual decision-making under.

Downside Variance 
 = 
SUM(RET DEV)2 
N(ER) 
 = 
14.45
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Actual returns deviation over selected period
N(ER) = Number of points with returns less than expected return for the period
Let's now compare Cerence Downside Variance to its closest peers:
CRNC
EB
JG
KC
DOCU
CRNC14.449042751544294
EB10.22
JG19.73
KC17.87
DOCU19.48

Our perspective of the current Cerence rise

Mean deviation is down to 3.17. It may suggest a possible volatility slip. Cerence shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Cerence further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Cerence future alpha.

Our Conclusion on Cerence

Whereas some firms under the software—application industry are still a bit expensive, Cerence may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. The bottom line, as of the 16th of November 2020, our analysis shows that Cerence almost neglects market trends. The company is overvalued and projects low probability of distress for the next 2 years. Our final 30 days buy-or-sell advice on the company is Strong Sell.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Cerence. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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