Are Crown (NASDAQ:CRWS) retail investors starting to hold back?

The reasoning behind this post is to forecast a future value of Crown Crafts using technical analysis. What exactly are Crown Crafts retail investors should expect in September?
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Vlad Skutelnik

Crown Crafts has a beta of 0.3255. Let's try to break down what Crown's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Crown Crafts returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Crown Crafts will be expected to be smaller as well. The beta indicator helps investors understand whether Crown Crafts moves in the same direction as the rest of the market, and how volatile (i.e., risky) it is compared to the market (i.e., selected benchmark). In other words, if Crown deviates very little from the market, it does not add much risk to the portfolio, but it also doesn't increase the expected returns.
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Crown Crafts. Regardless of method or technology, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Predictive Modules for Crown Crafts

Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Crown Crafts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Crown Crafts. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Crown Crafts' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Crown Crafts' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Crown Crafts.

How important is Crown Crafts's Liquidity

Crown Crafts financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Crown Crafts ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Crown Crafts financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Crown Crafts' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Crown Crafts' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Crown Crafts's total debt and its cash.

Crown Crafts Gross Profit

Crown Crafts Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Crown Crafts previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Crown Crafts Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Crown Crafts' gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Another Outlook On Crown Crafts

Crown Crafts has relatively low volatility with skewness of 0.29 and kurtosis of 6.12. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Crown Crafts to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Crown Crafts' stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Crown Crafts' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Crown Crafts Implied Volatility

Crown Crafts' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Crown Crafts stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Crown Crafts' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Crown Crafts stock will not fluctuate a lot when Crown Crafts' options are near their expiration.

Returns Breakdown

Return on Investment20.01
Return on Assets0.13
Return on Equity0.18
Return Capital0.28
Return on Sales0.12

Another small fall for Crown Crafts

Latest Sortino Ratio is up to 0.04. Price may fall again.
As of the 17th of August 2022, Crown Crafts shows the Downside Deviation of 1.92, risk adjusted performance of 0.131, and Mean Deviation of 1.16. Crown Crafts technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We are able to interpolate and break down nineteen technical drivers for Crown Crafts, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Crown Crafts coefficient of variation, maximum drawdown, as well as the relationship between the Maximum Drawdown and skewness to decide if Crown Crafts is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 6.5 per share. Given that Crown Crafts has jensen alpha of 0.1421, we suggest you to validate Crown Crafts's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Conclusion on Crown Crafts

While few other entities in the furnishings, fixtures & appliances industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Crown Crafts may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. With a relatively neutral outlook on the latest economy, it is better to hold off any trading of Crown as the current risk-reward utility is not appealing enough. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Crown Crafts.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Ellen Johnson do not own shares of Crown Crafts. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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