Contura Story

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CTRA -- USA Stock  

USD 8.27  0.34  4.29%

A current spike in volatility has left many investors looking confused. In this story, we will go over Contura Energy. We will analyze why Contura Energy investors may still consider a stake in the business. Contura Energy is currently traded for 4.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01. The average price elasticity to hype of competition is about 0.04. The firm is forecasted to decline in value after the next press release, with the price expected to drop to 3.99. The average volatility of headline impact on the company stock price is huge, making predictions on the news or social media along less reliable. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.25%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.4 percent. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next forecasted announcement will be in about 4 days.
Published over a month ago
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Is Contura Energy (NYSE:CTRA) gaining more confidence from investors?
We provide trade advice to complement the prevailing expert consensus on Contura Energy. Our dynamic recommendation engine uses a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time.
The successful prediction of Contura Energy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Contura Energy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Contura Energy based on Contura Energy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Contura Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Contura Energy's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Contura expected Price

Contura Energy technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Contura Energy technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Contura Energy trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How Contura utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Contura Energy, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Contura Energy is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Contura Energy cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Contura Energy Net Cash Flow from Operations is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Net Cash Flow from Operations was at 131.88 Million

Contura Energy exotic insider transaction detected

Legal trades by Contura Energy insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Contura insider trading alert for general transaction of equity swaps (obligation to buy) by Davidson Kempner Partners, the corporate stakeholder, on 7th of September 2020. This event was filed by Contura Energy Inc with SEC on 2019-11-21. Initial filing of beneficial ownership - SEC Form 3 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Detailed Outlook On Contura Energy

The current rise in Contura Energy short term price appreciation could raise concerns from investors as the firm closed today at a share price of 3.48 on 247,417 in volume. The company executives have successfully maneuvered the firm at convenient times to take advantage of all market conditions in July. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 9.78. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the Contura Energy partners.

Cost of Revenue Breakdown

Contura Energy Cost of Revenue is increasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Ongoing Cost of Revenue is projected to grow to about 2 B this year. Cost of Revenue usually refers to the aggregate cost of goods produced and sold and services rendered during the reporting period. Contura Energy Cost of Revenue is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Cost of Revenue was at 1.92 Billion
20101.33 Billion
20181.66 Billion
20191.92 Billion
20201.96 Billion

Will Contura Energy growth be feasible after the rise?

Current jensen alpha is at 0.74. Contura Energy is showing large volatility of returns over the selected time horizon. We encourage all investors to investigate this asset further to make sure related market timing strategies are aligned with all the expectations about Contura Energy implied risk.

The Bottom Line

Whereas few other entities within the thermal coal industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Contura Energy may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. To sum up, as of the 7th of August 2020, our up-to-date 30 days buy-or-sell advice on the company is Hold. We believe Contura Energy is currently undervalued with close to average chance of distress for the next two years.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Contura Energy. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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