Will Chevron (NYSE:CVX) continue to slide in January?

With so much uncertainty about the energy space, it is fair to break down Chevron against current market trends. As we have suggested previously, Chevron is beginning its slide as investors shift to be more bearish due to the increased sector volatility. The returns on investing in Chevron and the market returns of the last few months appear uncorrelated. Strong basic indicators of the company may also suggest signals of long term gains for Chevron investors. The next fiscal quarter end is expected on the 31st of December 2020.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

Chevron's average rating is Buy from 14 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Chevron market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Chevron. Let us look at a few aspects of Chevron technical analysis. The company has Net Profit Margin of (11.02) %, which means that it does not effectively control expenditures or properly executes on its pricing strategies. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows Net Operating Margin of 15.13 %, which entails that for every 100 dollars of revenue, it generated 0.15 of operating income.
Using predictive technical analysis, we can analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chevron Corp. In general, sophisticated investors focus on analyzing Chevron Corp stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. They apply predictive analytics to build Chevron Corp's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Chevron Corp's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Chevron Corp, many experienced traders also check how macroeconomic factors affect Chevron Corp price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chevron Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Chevron Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chevron Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chevron Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chevron Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Chevron Corp.

How important is Chevron Corp's Liquidity

Chevron Corp financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Chevron Corp ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Chevron Corp financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Chevron Corp's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Chevron Corp's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Chevron Corp's total debt and its cash.

Chevron Corp Gross Profit

Chevron Corp Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Chevron Corp previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Chevron Corp Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Chevron Corp's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Closer look at Chevron Semi Variance

Chevron has current Semi Variance of 3.04. Semi-variance provides a good measure of downside volatility for equity or a portfolio. It is similar to variance, but it only looks at periods where the returns are less than the target or average level.
Semi-variance is the square of semi-deviation. Semi-variance is calculated by averaging the deviations of returns that have a result that is less than the mean.
Semi Variance 
 = 
SUM(RET DEV)2 
N(ZERO) 
 = 
3.04
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Actual return deviation over selected period
N(ZERO) = Number of points with returns less than zero
Let's now compare Chevron Semi Variance to its closest peers:
CVX
E
AE
BP
EC
CVX3.038927111643966
E3.64
AE6.47
BP4.78
EC4.63

Chevron has 62 percent chance to slide under $83 in the coming weeks

The risk adjusted performance is down to 0.12 as of today. As of the 28th of December, Chevron shows the risk adjusted performance of 0.1207, and Mean Deviation of 2.01. Chevron technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to interpolate data for nineteen technical drivers for Chevron, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Chevron market risk adjusted performance, variance, as well as the relationship between the Variance and potential upside to decide if Chevron is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 84.9 per share. Given that Chevron has jensen alpha of 0.2605, we suggest you to validate Chevron's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Final Perspective on Chevron

While some firms in the oil & gas integrated industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Chevron may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. With an optimistic outlook on your 30 days horizon, it may be a good time to pick up new shares of Chevron or increase your existing holdings in the Stock as it seems the potential growth has not yet been fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Chevron.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Chevron Corp. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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