Chevron Story

<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#347AFC;color: #ffffff;font-size:3em;'>CVX</div>
CVX -- USA Stock  

USD 89.36  1.54  1.69%

With so much uncertainty about the energy space, it is fair to break down Chevron against current market trends. As we have suggested previously, Chevron is beginning its slide as investors shift to be more bearish due to the increased sector volatility. The returns on investing in Chevron and the market returns of the last few months appear uncorrelated. Strong basic indicators of the company may also suggest signals of long term gains for Chevron investors. The next fiscal quarter end is expected on the 31st of December 2020.
Published over three weeks ago
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Will Chevron (NYSE:CVX) continue to slide in January?
Chevron's average rating is Buy from 14 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Chevron market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Chevron. Let us look at a few aspects of Chevron technical analysis. The company has Net Profit Margin of (11.02) %, which means that it does not effectively control expenditures or properly executes on its pricing strategies. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows Net Operating Margin of 15.13 %, which entails that for every 100 dollars of revenue, it generated 0.15 of operating income.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Chevron. In general, we focus on analyzing Chevron stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Chevron's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Chevron's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Chevron, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Chevron price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chevron's stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Chevron in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chevron. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chevron's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chevron's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Chevron.

How does Chevron Stands against Peers?

Analyzing Chevron competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Chevron across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out Chevron Competition Details

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions. It is good to see analyst projects for Chevron, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Exercise or conversion by Pierre Breber of 13000 shares of Chevron subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Chevron insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Chevron insider trading alert for exercise of non-qualified stock option (right to buy) by Pierre Breber, VP & Chief Financial Officer, on 22nd of January 2021. This event was filed by Chevron Corp with SEC on 2021-01-22. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4. Pierre Breber currently serves as corporate vice president and presidentident, chevron gas and midstream of Chevron [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Closer look at Chevron Semi Variance

Chevron has current Semi Variance of 3.04. Semi-variance provides a good measure of downside volatility for equity or a portfolio. It is similar to variance, but it only looks at periods where the returns are less than the target or average level.

Semi-variance is the square of semi-deviation. Semi-variance is calculated by averaging the deviations of returns that have a result that is less than the mean.

Semi Variance 
 = 
SUM(RET DEV)2 
N(ZERO) 
 = 
3.04
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Actual return deviation over selected period
N(ZERO) = Number of points with returns less than zero
Let's now compare Chevron Semi Variance to its closest peers:
CVX
E
AE
BP
EC
CVX3.038927111643966
E3.64
AE6.47
BP4.78
EC4.63

Chevron has 62 percent chance to slide under $83 in the coming weeks

The risk adjusted performance is down to 0.12 as of today. As of the 28th of December, Chevron shows the risk adjusted performance of 0.1207, and Mean Deviation of 2.01. Chevron technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to interpolate data for nineteen technical drivers for Chevron, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Chevron market risk adjusted performance, variance, as well as the relationship between the Variance and potential upside to decide if Chevron is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 84.9 per share. Given that Chevron has jensen alpha of 0.2605, we suggest you to validate Chevron's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Final Perspective on Chevron

While some firms in the oil & gas integrated industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Chevron may not be performing as strong as the other in terms of long-term growth potentials. With an optimistic outlook on your 30 days horizon, it may be a good time to pick up new shares of Chevron or increase your existing holdings in the Stock as it seems the potential growth has not yet been fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Chevron.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Chevron. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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