Will Ennis (NYSE:EBF) low risk outlook last untill October?

Ennis is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 1.0761% on return distribution over 90 days investment horizon. As many old-fashioned traders are trying to avoid industrials space, it makes sense to digest Ennis Inc a little further and try to understand its current volatility patterns. We will discuss why it could be a different year for Ennis shareholders. Ennis' very low volatility may have no significant impact on the stock's value as we estimate Ennis as currently undervalued. The real value, based on our calculations, is getting close to 21.00 per share.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Michael Smolkin

Ennis Inc has roughly 81.33 M in cash with 49.85 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 3.12.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Ennis or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Ennis may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Ennis's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Ennis and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Ennis fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Ennis's Liquidity

Ennis financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Ennis Inc ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Ennis financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Ennis' owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Ennis' financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Ennis's total debt and its cash.

Ennis Gross Profit

Ennis Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Ennis previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Ennis Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Ennis' gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Ennis Volatility Drivers

Ennis unsystematic risk is unique to Ennis Inc and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Ennis you can also buy Acco Brands. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the industrials sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Ennis important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Ennis income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Ennis volatility.
0.530.820.620.880.190.960.9-0.130.26-0.95-0.95-0.82-0.17-0.13-0.160.310.53-0.02-0.58-0.570.30.23
0.530.88-0.130.320.220.590.35-0.570.79-0.42-0.42-0.61-0.17-0.19-0.180.280.04-0.53-0.84-0.870.9-0.53
0.820.880.30.580.090.870.72-0.520.57-0.72-0.72-0.8-0.15-0.25-0.160.340.27-0.41-0.78-0.810.77-0.28
0.62-0.130.30.57-0.340.640.760.1-0.37-0.64-0.64-0.480.04-0.250.03-0.010.460.19-0.04-0.02-0.230.45
0.880.320.580.570.070.760.670.250.12-0.8-0.8-0.59-0.20.06-0.180.00.450.07-0.54-0.5-0.040.27
0.190.220.09-0.340.070.090.04-0.150.29-0.35-0.35-0.260.140.040.150.680.050.140.040.070.180.34
0.960.590.870.640.760.090.93-0.270.35-0.9-0.9-0.89-0.19-0.28-0.20.330.58-0.12-0.61-0.620.410.12
0.90.350.720.760.670.040.93-0.140.16-0.86-0.86-0.78-0.17-0.13-0.190.410.660.01-0.34-0.350.250.35
-0.13-0.57-0.520.10.25-0.15-0.27-0.14-0.290.210.210.42-0.320.65-0.28-0.350.260.360.30.34-0.760.53
0.260.790.57-0.370.120.290.350.16-0.29-0.17-0.17-0.5-0.17-0.01-0.180.310.07-0.5-0.63-0.670.69-0.48
-0.95-0.42-0.72-0.64-0.8-0.35-0.9-0.860.21-0.171.00.88-0.060.29-0.06-0.43-0.44-0.040.410.39-0.22-0.33
-0.95-0.42-0.72-0.64-0.8-0.35-0.9-0.860.21-0.171.00.88-0.060.29-0.06-0.43-0.44-0.040.410.39-0.22-0.33
-0.82-0.61-0.8-0.48-0.59-0.26-0.89-0.780.42-0.50.880.88-0.120.48-0.09-0.45-0.330.240.540.54-0.470.01
-0.17-0.17-0.150.04-0.20.14-0.19-0.17-0.32-0.17-0.06-0.06-0.12-0.461.00.23-0.72-0.260.380.36-0.05-0.13
-0.13-0.19-0.25-0.250.060.04-0.28-0.130.65-0.010.290.290.48-0.46-0.4-0.070.130.250.150.15-0.230.3
-0.16-0.18-0.160.03-0.180.15-0.2-0.19-0.28-0.18-0.06-0.06-0.091.0-0.40.22-0.74-0.240.380.36-0.07-0.11
0.310.280.34-0.010.00.680.330.41-0.350.31-0.43-0.43-0.450.23-0.070.220.12-0.30.190.150.440.28
0.530.040.270.460.450.050.580.660.260.07-0.44-0.44-0.33-0.720.13-0.740.120.39-0.22-0.19-0.090.55
-0.02-0.53-0.410.190.070.14-0.120.010.36-0.5-0.04-0.040.24-0.260.25-0.24-0.30.390.20.3-0.620.64
-0.58-0.84-0.78-0.04-0.540.04-0.61-0.340.3-0.630.410.410.540.380.150.380.19-0.220.20.99-0.580.47
-0.57-0.87-0.81-0.02-0.50.07-0.62-0.350.34-0.670.390.390.540.360.150.360.15-0.190.30.99-0.640.53
0.30.90.77-0.23-0.040.180.410.25-0.760.69-0.22-0.22-0.47-0.05-0.23-0.070.44-0.09-0.62-0.58-0.64-0.58
0.23-0.53-0.280.450.270.340.120.350.53-0.48-0.33-0.330.01-0.130.3-0.110.280.550.640.470.53-0.58
Click cells to compare fundamentals

Breaking down Ennis Further

Ennis Inc reported the last year's revenue of 365.91 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 27.21 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 103.77 M.
 2017 2018 2019 2021 (projected)
Interest Expense777 K1.15 M11 K324.74 K
Gross Profit117.2 M123.36 M103.77 M122.47 M

Will Ennis continue to surge?

Latest value at risk indicator falls down to -1.92. Possible price growth? Ennis Inc exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.0 and kurtosis of 0.79. However, we advise investors to further study Ennis Inc technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Ennis' stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Ennis' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Our Final Take On Ennis

Although some other entities within the business equipment & supplies industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Ennis may offer a potential longer-term growth to shareholders. With an impartial outlook on the current market volatility, it may be better to hold off any inventment activity and neither take up nor exit any shares of Ennis at this time. The Ennis Inc risk-reward trade off is not appealing enough to do any trading. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Ennis.

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Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Rifka Kats do not own shares of Ennis Inc. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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