Is Edesa Biotech (NASDAQ:EDSA) rise feasible based on current volatility?

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Edesa Biotech is expected to generate 19.67 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 19.67 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.14 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The DOW is currently generating roughly 0.01 per unit of risk. While some risk-seeking investors are getting worried about healthcare space, it is reasonable to go over Edesa Biotech as a possible investment alternative. We will go over a few points Edesa Biotech investors should remember regarding its volatility. The current Edesa risk factors may impact the value of the stock as we estimate Edesa Biotech as currently undervalued. The real value is approaching 12.69 per share.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Gabriel Shpitalnik

This firm conducts business under Healthcare sector and is part of Biotechnology industry.
Edesa Biotech holds a performance score of 10 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.093, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Edesa's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Edesa Biotech returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Edesa Biotech will be expected to be smaller as well. Although it is essential to pay attention to Edesa Biotech historical returns, it is also good to be reasonable about what you can do with equity current trending patterns. Our philosophy towards predicting future performance of any stock is to look not only at its past charts but also at the business as a whole, including all fundamental and technical indicators. To evaluate if Edesa Biotech expected return of 1.81 will be sustainable into the future, we have found twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to check if the expected returns are sustainable. Use Edesa Biotech coefficient of variation, maximum drawdown, skewness, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and downside variance to analyze future returns on Edesa Biotech.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Edesa Biotech or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Edesa Biotech may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Edesa's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Edesa Biotech and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Edesa Biotech fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Edesa Biotech's Liquidity

Edesa Biotech financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Edesa Biotech ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Edesa Biotech financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Edesa Biotech's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Edesa Biotech's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Edesa Biotech's total debt and its cash.

Edesa Biotech Gross Profit

Edesa Biotech Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Edesa Biotech previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Edesa Biotech Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Edesa Biotech's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Edesa Biotech Volatility Drivers

Edesa Biotech unsystematic risk is unique to Edesa Biotech and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Edesa Biotech you can also buy Senti Biosciences. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the health care sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Edesa Biotech important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Edesa Biotech income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Edesa volatility.
-0.80.260.6-0.05-0.49-0.16-0.45-0.36-0.2-0.20.260.30.240.160.01-0.050.170.03-0.320.02
-0.8-0.59-0.190.120.540.080.350.070.140.14-0.12-0.230.040.10.030.220.10.140.160.0
0.26-0.59-0.280.1-0.530.01-0.160.420.120.12-0.03-0.12-0.49-0.450.12-0.33-0.44-0.510.10.17
0.6-0.19-0.280.36-0.13-0.26-0.62-0.5-0.24-0.240.230.220.550.510.30.410.520.38-0.29-0.11
-0.050.120.10.360.050.28-0.460.52-0.21-0.21-0.38-0.01-0.070.10.66-0.140.11-0.140.21-0.19
-0.490.54-0.53-0.130.050.480.390.180.120.12-0.56-0.22-0.150.310.210.190.30.340.72-0.1
-0.160.080.01-0.260.280.480.520.48-0.17-0.17-0.710.02-0.180.150.33-0.190.130.080.58-0.32
-0.450.35-0.16-0.62-0.460.390.520.050.220.22-0.15-0.23-0.06-0.1-0.290.13-0.130.090.230.0
-0.360.070.42-0.50.520.180.480.050.070.07-0.52-0.22-0.7-0.50.31-0.59-0.51-0.630.440.0
-0.20.140.12-0.24-0.210.12-0.170.220.071.00.36-0.97-0.61-0.30.280.42-0.29-0.040.010.94
-0.20.140.12-0.24-0.210.12-0.170.220.071.00.36-0.97-0.61-0.30.280.42-0.29-0.040.010.94
0.26-0.12-0.030.23-0.38-0.56-0.71-0.15-0.520.360.36-0.210.2-0.37-0.350.3-0.37-0.16-0.810.49
0.3-0.23-0.120.22-0.01-0.220.02-0.23-0.22-0.97-0.97-0.210.630.28-0.43-0.440.270.05-0.12-0.86
0.240.04-0.490.55-0.07-0.15-0.18-0.06-0.7-0.61-0.610.20.630.52-0.40.240.520.45-0.4-0.56
0.160.1-0.450.510.10.310.15-0.1-0.5-0.3-0.3-0.370.280.520.280.41.00.880.24-0.29
0.010.030.120.30.660.210.33-0.290.310.280.28-0.35-0.43-0.40.280.290.30.240.40.27
-0.050.22-0.330.41-0.140.19-0.190.13-0.590.420.420.3-0.440.240.40.290.410.61-0.10.29
0.170.1-0.440.520.110.30.13-0.13-0.51-0.29-0.29-0.370.270.521.00.30.410.880.24-0.28
0.030.14-0.510.38-0.140.340.080.09-0.63-0.04-0.04-0.160.050.450.880.240.610.880.15-0.09
-0.320.160.1-0.290.210.720.580.230.440.010.01-0.81-0.12-0.40.240.4-0.10.240.15-0.16
0.020.00.17-0.11-0.19-0.1-0.320.00.00.940.940.49-0.86-0.56-0.290.270.29-0.28-0.09-0.16
Click cells to compare fundamentals

Another Deeper Perspective

The company reported the previous year's revenue of 110.48 K. Net Loss for the year was (8.68 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 311.2 K.
 2016 2017 2020 2021 (projected)
Revenues USD228.29 K328.8 K372.13 K432.09 K
Revenues228.29 K328.8 K372.13 K432.09 K

Our take on today Edesa Biotech rise

Current value at risk indicator falls down to -4.54. Possible price jump? Edesa Biotech currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.04 and Jensen Alpha of 0.11. However, we advise investors to further question Edesa Biotech expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Edesa Biotech's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Edesa Biotech's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Our Final Take On Edesa Biotech

Whereas some firms within the biotechnology industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Edesa Biotech may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. To conclude, as of the 20th of September 2021, our actual 90 days buy vs. sell advice on the company is Sell. However, we believe Edesa Biotech is undervalued with below average chance of financial distress for the next two years.

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