Erie Indemnity dips -1.63
 | By Ellen Johnson | Macroaxis Story |
In this write-up I will digest Erie Indemnity. I will look into why despite ongoing dip, the longer-term fundamental drivers of the firm are still sound. Erie Indemnity almost mirrors market. The returns on the market and returns on Erie Indemnity appear slightly-related for the last few months. The appearance of sound fundamental drivers of the firm indicates shorter-term price swing for shareholders of the firm. What is Erie Indemnity Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price? Pertaining to normal probability distribution, the odds of Erie Indemnity to move above current price in 30 days from now is about 84.03%. The Erie Indemnity Company probability density function shows the probability of Erie Indemnity Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days . Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Erie Indemnity has beta of 0.5207 suggesting as returns on market go up, Erie Indemnity average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Erie Indemnity Company will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally, the company has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. Erie Indemnity is significantly underperforming Russell 2000 .
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Reviewed by Gabriel Shpitalnik
The company average rating is Strong Buy from 1 analysts. As of 22 of October Erie Indemnity shows Mean Deviation of 1.81 and Coefficient Of Variation of (494.98). Erie Indemnity technical analysis allows you to utilize historical prices and volume patterns in order to determine a pattern that computes the direction of the firm future prices. In plain English you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum or the prices will eventually revert. We found nineteen technical drivers for Erie Indemnity Company which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Erie Indemnity Standard Deviation, Value At Risk, Kurtosis, as well as the relationship between Jensen Alpha and Semi Variance to decide if Erie Indemnity is priced favorably providing market reflects its regular price of 186.38 per share. Given that Erie Indemnity has Jensen Alpha of (0.51), we urge you verify Erie Indemnity Company prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at future point.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Erie Indemnity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Erie Indemnity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Erie Indemnity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Erie Indemnity.
Using predictive technical analysis, we can analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Erie Indemnity. In general, sophisticated investors focus on analyzing Erie Indemnity stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. They apply predictive analytics to build Erie Indemnity's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Erie Indemnity's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Erie Indemnity, many experienced traders also check how macroeconomic factors affect Erie Indemnity price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Erie Indemnity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
How important is Erie Indemnity's Liquidity
Erie Indemnity financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Erie Indemnity ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Erie Indemnity financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Erie Indemnity's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Erie Indemnity's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Erie Indemnity's total debt and its cash.
Erie Indemnity Gross Profit
Erie Indemnity Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Erie Indemnity previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Erie Indemnity Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Erie Indemnity's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.
Breaking down the case for Erie Indemnity
The big decline in price over the last few months for Erie Indemnity could raise concerns from investors as the firm closed today at a share price of 184.83 on 109381.000 in volume. The company executives failed to add value to investors and positioning the firm components to exploit market volatility in September. However, diversifying your holdings with Erie Indemnity Company or any similar stocks can still protect your portfolios during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days (very short) investing horizon is currently 2.4904. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in September 2019 as well as with Erie Indemnity unsystematic, company specific events. Erie Indemnity makes 15.16 operating margin. Erie Indemnity is selling at 186.38. That is 1.63 percent down. Today highest was 190.4. Erie Indemnity Earnings before Tax is decreasing over the last 4 years. Moreover, Erie Indemnity Operating Expenses is decreasing over the last 4 years. The previous year value of Erie Indemnity Operating Expenses was 270,723,667. To sum up, we believe that at this point Erie Indemnity is very steady with very low odds of financial turmoil within the next 2 years. Our primary buy/sell recommendation on the firm is Hold.
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