National Story

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EYE -- USA Stock  

USD 47.39  0.41  0.87%

As many baby boomers are indifferent towards consumer cyclical space, it makes sense to digest National Vision Holdings against current market trends. As we have suggested previously, National Vision is beginning its dip as shareholders shift to be more bearish due to the increased sector volatility. National Vision Holdings almost mirrors the market. The company returns are highly-related to returns on the market. As market moves, the company is expected to follow. Sound basic indicators of the firm may indicate signs of shorter-term price drift for shareholders. National Vision Holdings is scheduled to announce its earnings today. The next earnings report is expected on the 6th of May 2021.
Published over a month ago
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Our latest technical analysis of National Vision Holdings (NASDAQ:EYE)
This firm's average rating is Buy from 8 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on National Vision market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of National. Let us look at a few aspects of National technical analysis. The company has Net Profit Margin of 0.32 %, which implies that it may need a different competitive strategy as even a very small decline in it revenue may erase profits and result in a net loss. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows Net Operating Margin of 9.61 %, which entails that for every 100 dollars of revenue, it generated 0.1 of operating income.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Vision Holdings. In general, we focus on analyzing National Vision stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build National Vision's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of National Vision's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for National Vision, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect National Vision price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Vision's stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of National Vision in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Vision. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Vision's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Vision's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in National Vision Holdings.

How does National Stands against Peers?

Analyzing National Vision competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to National Vision across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out National Vision Competition Details

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions.
It is good to see analyst projects for National Vision, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Closer look at National Vision Downside Variance

National Vision Holdings has current Downside Variance of 4.61. Downside Variance (or DV) is measured by target semi-variance and is termed downside volatility. It is expressed in percentages and therefore allows for rankings in the same way as variance. One way to view downside volatility is the annualized variance of returns below the target.

Downside Variance is the probability-weighted squared below-target returns. The squaring of the below-target returns has the effect of penalizing failures at an exponential rate. This is consistent with observations made on the behavior of individual decision-making under.

Downside Variance 
 = 
SUM(RET DEV)2 
N(ER) 
 = 
4.61
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Actual returns deviation over selected period
N(ER) = Number of points with returns less than expected return for the period
Let's now compare National Vision Downside Variance to its closest peers:
EYE
LE
FIVE
FLWS
AAP
EYE4.6142770485617035
LE25.13
FIVE4.77
FLWS16.06
AAP3.91

National Vision is epected to finish above $47 in April

The standard deviation is down to 2.39 as of today. National Vision Holdings currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.01 and Jensen Alpha of 0.03. However, we advise investors to further question National Vision Holdings expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure National Vision's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact National Vision's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Our Takeaway on National Vision Investment

Although some other companies under the specialty retail industry are still a bit expensive, National Vision may offer a potential longer-term growth to shareholders. While some shareholders may not share our view we believe that the current risk-reward utility is not appealing enough to do any trading. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to National Vision.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of National Vision Holdings. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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