This firm's average rating is Buy from 8 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on National Vision market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of National. Let us look at a few aspects of National technical analysis. The company has Net Profit Margin of
0.32 %, which implies that it may need a different competitive strategy as even a very small decline in it revenue may erase profits and result in a net loss. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows Net Operating Margin of
9.61 %, which entails that for every 100 dollars of revenue, it generated 0.1 of operating income.
Using predictive
technical analysis, we can analyze different prices and returns patterns and
diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of National Vision Holdings. In general, sophisticated investors focus on analyzing National Vision stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. They apply predictive analytics to build National Vision's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as
momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional
technical analysis and
fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of
National Vision's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for National Vision, many experienced traders also check how macroeconomic factors affect National Vision price patterns. Please read more on our
technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed
many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Vision's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Vision. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Vision's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Vision's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in National Vision Holdings.
How important is National Vision's Liquidity
National Vision
financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance National Vision Holdings ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. National Vision financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to National Vision's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of National Vision's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the
breakdown between National Vision's total debt and its cash.
National Vision Gross Profit
National Vision Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing National Vision previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show National Vision Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check National Vision's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Closer look at National Vision Downside Variance
National Vision Holdings has current Downside Variance of 4.61. Downside Variance (or DV) is measured by target semi-variance and is termed downside volatility. It is expressed in percentages and therefore allows for rankings in the same way as variance. One way to view downside volatility is the annualized variance of returns below the target.
Downside Variance is the probability-weighted squared below-target returns. The squaring of the below-target returns has the effect of penalizing failures at an exponential rate. This is consistent with observations made on the behavior of individual decision-making under.
Downside Variance | = | SUM(RET DEV)2 N(ER) |
| = | 4.61 |
| SUM | = | Summation notation |
| RET DEV | = | Actual returns deviation over selected period |
| N(ER) | = | Number of points with returns less than expected return for the period |
Let's now compare National Vision Downside Variance to its closest peers:
| EYE | 4.6142770485617035 |
| LE | 25.13 |
| FIVE | 4.77 |
| FLWS | 16.06 |
| AAP | 3.91 |
National Vision is epected to finish above $47 in April
The standard deviation is down to 2.39 as of today. National Vision Holdings currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.01 and Jensen Alpha of 0.03. However, we advise investors to further question National Vision Holdings expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure National Vision's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact National Vision's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
Our Takeaway on National Vision Investment
Although some other companies under the specialty retail industry are still a bit expensive, National Vision may offer a potential longer-term growth to shareholders. While some shareholders may not share our view we believe that the current risk-reward utility is not appealing enough to do any trading. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to National Vision.
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Vlad Skutelnik is a Macroaxis Contributor. Vlad covers stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs that are traded in North America, focusing primarily on fundamentals, valuation and market volatility. He has many years of experience in fintech, predictive investment analytics, and risk management.
View Profile This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of National Vision Holdings. Please refer to our
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