|By Nathan Young|
May 10, 2017
Just as the title states, this will cover the ten year return. The ten year return is for the extremely long term investor, giving you a look at the returns that would likely include a full business cycle and many of the seasonality’s of the equity you are researching. However, do not get caught up in the finer details as many, if not all, markets will fall at some point.
The ten year return should be used for mutual funds and equities you plan on holding for a very long time and will also purchase more during the life of your investing goals. For example, you may want to look at the ten year return of a mutual fund to understand if you will make money over the long haul. Of course past performance does not guarantee future profits, but it will give you a decent indication.
Here are a few of the good items with a ten year return analysis. First, the ten years will give you a real look at how the company does during a business cycle. Ten years should be long enough to cover a business cycle, allowing you to see how the equity performs during certain market conditions. Secondly, you can jump into slightly more detail and see which seasons affect the stock. An example being the retail market and how they usually break into the black during the holiday season or quarter. Lastly, you can get a true sense of how the equity will perform. Over a ten year period, you will likely see many outside market affects and how the equity reacted.
A few negatives to keep in mind are that first; it is not for the short term investor as over a ten year span, a short term investor is not likely to see many of those affects. Yes, it will paint a better picture, but as a short term investor, you would be more interested in the day to day news of performance of the stock and company. Secondly, it could have a negative impact on your research because not many people hold an equity for ten plus years. To hold something that long, you have to have faith that the company or performance will sustain. Obviously an S&P tracking mutual funds will always perform, but speaking in terms of a company or ETF, it may not do well for ten plus years.
Find the right time frame that fits your investing and trading style and find a way to utilize that. Not all times frame are going to give you what you need, but it certainly won’t hurt to try. If you have questions, reach out to an investing community and they can help to push you in the right direction and even give you real time feedback.
|Nathan Young is a Senior Member of Macroaxs Editorial Board - US Equity Analysis. With years of experience in the financial sector, Nathan brings a diverse base of knowledge. Specifically, he has in-depth understanding of application of technical and fundamental analysis across different equity instruments. Utilizing SEC filings and technical indicators, Nathan provides a reputable analysis of companies trading in the United States. View Profile|
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