FIRST Stock Story

FRC -  USA Stock  

USD 169.48  5.38  3.08%

FIRST REPUBLIC is generating negative expected returns assuming volatility of 1.6968% on return distribution over 60 days investment horizon. While some of us are excited about financial services space, it makes sense to go over FIRST REPUBLIC in greater detail to make a better estimate of its risk and reward. What exactly are FIRST REPUBLIC shareholders getting in February? FIRST REPUBLIC's very low volatility may have no significant impact on the stock's value as we estimate FIRST REPUBLIC as currently fairly valued. The real value, based on our calculations, is getting close to 193.17 per share.
Published over a week ago
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Will FIRST REPUBLIC (NYSE:FRC) low risk outlook last untill February?
FIRST REPUBLIC BANK has roughly 12.31 B in cash with 335.57 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 68.68.
Volatility is a rate at which the price of FIRST REPUBLIC or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of FIRST REPUBLIC may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to FIRST's beta indicator, it measures the risk of FIRST REPUBLIC and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of FIRST REPUBLIC fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is FIRST REPUBLIC's Liquidity

FIRST REPUBLIC financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance FIRST REPUBLIC BANK ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. FIRST REPUBLIC financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Please check the breakdown between FIRST REPUBLIC's total debt and its cash.

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions.
It is good to see analyst projects for FIRST REPUBLIC, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

FIRST REPUBLIC Volatility Drivers

FIRST REPUBLIC unsystematic risk is unique to FIRST REPUBLIC BANK and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in FIRST REPUBLIC you can also buy Zions Bancorp. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the banks—regional sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing FIRST REPUBLIC important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in FIRST REPUBLIC income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about FIRST volatility.
0.0-0.090.02-0.010.06-0.03-0.12-0.530.180.050.03-0.310.970.090.20.270.12-0.020.010.22-0.12
0.00.891.01.00.980.84-0.680.390.33-0.151.0-0.58-0.210.910.23-0.17-0.39-0.240.94-0.480.44
-0.090.890.870.890.820.61-0.40.560.01-0.230.88-0.33-0.260.7-0.07-0.07-0.42-0.230.76-0.640.32
0.021.00.871.00.990.85-0.730.360.39-0.171.0-0.63-0.180.920.3-0.16-0.4-0.260.94-0.470.42
-0.011.00.891.00.980.83-0.680.390.32-0.151.0-0.57-0.210.910.22-0.17-0.39-0.240.94-0.490.45
0.060.980.820.990.980.86-0.770.290.44-0.040.99-0.66-0.150.960.35-0.1-0.27-0.140.94-0.410.38
-0.030.840.610.850.830.86-0.880.020.58-0.290.84-0.76-0.250.930.49-0.48-0.5-0.410.95-0.020.61
-0.12-0.68-0.4-0.73-0.68-0.77-0.880.07-0.840.19-0.710.930.06-0.86-0.780.140.270.29-0.780.01-0.22
-0.530.390.560.360.390.290.020.07-0.31-0.070.350.23-0.550.09-0.330.15-0.19-0.010.18-0.84-0.04
0.180.330.010.390.320.440.58-0.84-0.31-0.170.37-0.810.090.520.99-0.05-0.15-0.290.430.13-0.01
0.05-0.15-0.23-0.17-0.15-0.04-0.290.19-0.07-0.17-0.150.250.11-0.03-0.180.510.910.96-0.22-0.01-0.31
0.031.00.881.01.00.990.84-0.710.350.37-0.15-0.61-0.180.920.27-0.15-0.38-0.240.94-0.460.42
-0.31-0.58-0.33-0.63-0.57-0.66-0.760.930.23-0.810.25-0.61-0.14-0.77-0.780.030.240.33-0.66-0.08-0.05
0.97-0.21-0.26-0.18-0.21-0.15-0.250.06-0.550.090.11-0.18-0.14-0.120.120.370.240.07-0.210.26-0.26
0.090.910.70.920.910.960.93-0.860.090.52-0.030.92-0.77-0.120.43-0.17-0.23-0.130.95-0.20.41
0.20.23-0.070.30.220.350.49-0.78-0.330.99-0.180.27-0.780.120.43-0.01-0.14-0.30.330.16-0.08
0.27-0.17-0.07-0.16-0.17-0.1-0.480.140.15-0.050.51-0.150.030.37-0.17-0.010.720.63-0.39-0.37-0.89
0.12-0.39-0.42-0.4-0.39-0.27-0.50.27-0.19-0.150.91-0.380.240.24-0.23-0.140.720.96-0.480.1-0.61
-0.02-0.24-0.23-0.26-0.24-0.14-0.410.29-0.01-0.290.96-0.240.330.07-0.13-0.30.630.96-0.34-0.04-0.45
0.010.940.760.940.940.940.95-0.780.180.43-0.220.94-0.66-0.210.950.33-0.39-0.48-0.34-0.240.62
0.22-0.48-0.64-0.47-0.49-0.41-0.020.01-0.840.13-0.01-0.46-0.080.26-0.20.16-0.370.1-0.04-0.240.2
-0.120.440.320.420.450.380.61-0.22-0.04-0.01-0.310.42-0.05-0.260.41-0.08-0.89-0.61-0.450.620.2
Click cells to compare fundamentals

A Deeper Perspective

The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.68 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.29 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.76 B.

Chances of FIRST REPUBLIC to reverse

The semi deviation is down to 1.76 as of today.
As of the 14th of January 2022, FIRST REPUBLIC shows the Downside Deviation of 1.8, market risk adjusted performance of 0.0122, and Mean Deviation of 1.16. FIRST REPUBLIC BANK technical analysis allows you to utilize historical prices and volume patterns in order to determine a pattern that computes the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to interpolate data for nineteen technical drivers for FIRST REPUBLIC BANK, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm FIRST REPUBLIC BANK treynor ratio, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and expected short fall to decide if FIRST REPUBLIC BANK is priced fairly, providing market reflects its regular price of 192.14 per share. Given that FIRST REPUBLIC has jensen alpha of (0.08), we urge you to verify FIRST REPUBLIC BANK's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at some point in the future.

Our Final Take On FIRST REPUBLIC

Whereas some other companies in the banks—regional industry are either recovering or due for a correction, FIRST may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. With an impartial outlook on the current market volatility, it may be better to hold off any inventment activity and neither acquire nor exit any shares of FIRST REPUBLIC at this time. The FIRST REPUBLIC BANK risk-reward trade off is not appealing enough to do any trading. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to FIRST REPUBLIC.

Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of FIRST REPUBLIC BANK. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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