Greenbrier Story

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GBX -- USA Stock  

USD 35.22  0.72  2.00%

Today we will break down Greenbrier Companies. We will evaluate why recent Greenbrier Companies price moves suggest a bounce in November. On the 25th of October the company is traded for 30.01. Greenbrier Companies has historical hype elasticity of -0.03. The average price elasticity to hype of competition is about 0.03. The entity is forecasted to decline in value after the next press release, with the price expected to drop to 32.99. The average volatility of headline impact on Greenbrier Companies stock price is huge, making predictions on the news or social media along less reliable. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.21 percent. Considering the 30-days investment horizon, the next forecasted announcement will be in about 6 days.
Published over a month ago
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Is Greenbrier Companies (NYSE:GBX) gaining more confidence from investors?
On a scale of 0 to 100, Greenbrier Companies holds a performance score of 5. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e. Beta) of -0.0374, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Greenbrier's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Greenbrier Companies are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Greenbrier Companies is likely to outperform the market. Although it is extremely important to respect Greenbrier Companies current price history, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current price movements. The philosophy towards determining future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By evaluating Greenbrier Companies technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.21% will be sustainable into the future. Please utilizes Greenbrier Companies value at risk, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and skewness to make a quick decision on whether Greenbrier Companies Inc current trending patterns will revert.
The successful prediction of Greenbrier Companies stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Greenbrier Companies Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Greenbrier Companies based on Greenbrier Companies hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Greenbrier Companies's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Greenbrier Companies's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Greenbrier expected Price

Greenbrier Companies technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Greenbrier Companies technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Greenbrier Companies trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How Greenbrier utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Greenbrier Companies, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Greenbrier Companies is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Greenbrier Companies cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Greenbrier Companies Net Cash Flow from Operations is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Greenbrier Companies reported Net Cash Flow from Operations of 272.26 Million in 2019

Sale by Mark Rittenbaum of 1929 shares of Greenbrier Companies

Legal trades by Greenbrier Companies insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Greenbrier insider trading alert for sale of common stock by Mark Rittenbaum, EVP Chief Comm & Leasing Off, on 6th of November 2020. This event was filed by Greenbrier Companies Inc with SEC on 2020-11-06. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4. Mark Rittenbaum currently serves as executive vice president, chief commercial and leasing officer of Greenbrier Companies [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking it down a bit more

The current bullish price patterns experienced by current Greenbrier Companies shareholders may raise some interest from investors. The stock closed today at a share price of 30.01 on slow start in trading volume. The company directors and management have been very successful in rebalancing the firm assets at opportune times to take advantage of market volatility in September. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 2.69. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in September 2020 as well as with Greenbrier Companies Inc unsystematic, company-specific events.

Deferred Revenue Breakdown

Greenbrier Companies Deferred Revenue yearly trend continues to be fairly stable with very little volatility. Deferred Revenue will likely drop to about 81.2 M in 2020. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. Greenbrier Companies Deferred Revenue is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Greenbrier Companies reported Deferred Revenue of 97.83 Million in 2019
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
201320.6 Million
201433.84 Million
201595.72 Million
2016129.26 Million
2017105.95 Million
201885.07 Million
201997.83 Million
202081.23 Million

Greenbrier Companies to recuperate in November

Current Total Risk Alpha is up to -0.04. Price may slide again. Greenbrier Companies Inc currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.05 and Jensen Alpha of 0.23. However, we do advice investors to further question Greenbrier Companies Inc expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Our Final Take On Greenbrier Companies

While some firms within the railroads industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Greenbrier Companies may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. To conclude, as of the 25th of October 2020, our overall 30 days advice on the company is Strong Sell. We believe Greenbrier Companies is overvalued with below average odds of financial turmoil for the next two years.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Gabriel Shpitalnik do not own shares of Greenbrier Companies Inc. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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