Gevo Story

<div class='circular--portrait' style='background:#FF6600;color: #FFFAFA;font-size:3em;'>GEV</div>
GEVO -- USA Stock  

USD 9.30  0.63  7.27%

A current spike in volatility has left many institutional investors looking confused. In this story, we will outline Gevo Inc. We will look into a few reasons why it is still possible for the company to generate above-average margins and positive cash flow. Gevo Inc is currently traded for 2.91. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.47. The average price elasticity to hype of competition is about 2.0. The firm is forecasted to decline in value after the next press release, with the price expected to drop to 2.84. The average volatility of headline impact on the company stock price is huge, making predictions on the news or social media along less reliable. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.41%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 2.91 percent. Given the investment horizon of 30 days the next forecasted announcement will be in about 7 days.
Published over three weeks ago
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Is Gevo (NASDAQ:GEVO) gaining more confidence from institutional investors?
We provide advice to complement the regular expert consensus on Gevo. Our dynamic recommendation engine utilizes a multidimensional algorithm to analyze the company's potential to grow using all technical and fundamental data available at the time. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of (243.39) %, which may suggest that it does not properly executes on its current pricing strategies or is unable to control all of the operational costs. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of (212.81) %, which suggests for every $100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating loss of -2.13.
The successful prediction of Gevo stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Gevo Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Gevo based on Gevo hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Gevo's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Gevo's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Gevo expected Price

Gevo technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Gevo technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Gevo trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How Gevo utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Gevo, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Gevo is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Gevo cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Gevo Net Cash Flow from Operations is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Net Cash Flow from Operations is estimated at (25.86 Million)

Payment of 9834 shares by Smull L Lynn of Gevo subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Gevo insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Gevo insider trading alert for payment of common stock by Smull L Lynn, Chief Financial Officer, on 17th of December 2020. This event was filed by Gevo Inc with SEC on 2020-12-17. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking down Gevo Indicators

The latest price rise of Gevo may raise some interest from institutional investors. The stock closed today at a share price of 2.91 on very low momentum in trading volume. The company executives may have good odds in positioning the firm resources to exploit market volatility in January. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 11.6. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the Gevo Inc partners.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Revenues USD27.54 M32.86 M24.49 M27.87 M
Revenues27.54 M32.86 M24.49 M27.87 M

Cost of Revenue Breakdown

Gevo Cost of Revenue yearly trend continues to be quite stable with very little volatility. Cost of Revenue may rise above about 39.7 M this year. Cost of Revenue usually refers to the aggregate cost of goods produced and sold and services rendered during the reporting period. Gevo Cost of Revenue is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Cost of Revenue is estimated at 39.72 Million
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
201317.91 Million
201435.58 Million
201538.76 Million
201637.02 Million
201738.16 Million
201841.57 Million
201936.73 Million
202039.72 Million

Momentum Analysis of Gevo suggests possible reversal in January

Latest skewness is at 2.59. As of the 24th of December, Gevo retains the Downside Deviation of 6.4, market risk adjusted performance of 5.44, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2336. Gevo technical analysis makes it possible for you to employ historical prices and volume momentum with the intention to determine a pattern that calculates the direction of the firm's future prices. Simply put, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical price patterns, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to analyze nineteen technical drivers for Gevo Inc, which can be compared to its competitors. Please check out Gevo Inc information ratio, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the Potential Upside and kurtosis to decide if Gevo is priced fairly, providing market reflects its last-minute price of 2.91 per share. Please also validate Gevo Inc total risk alpha, which is currently at 0.6243 to confirm the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Final Take On Gevo

Whereas other companies within the specialty chemicals industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Gevo may offer a potential longer-term growth to institutional investors. With an impartial outlook on the current market volatility, it may be better to hold off any inventment activity and neither buy nor short any shares of Gevo at this time. The Gevo Inc risk-reward trade off is not appealing enough to do any trading. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Gevo.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Gevo Inc. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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