Gevo Story

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GEVO -- USA Stock  

USD 12.67  0.57  4.31%

Despite quite weak basic indicators, Gevo disclosed solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. Will institutional investors continue to hold, or should we expect a sell-off?
Published over three weeks ago
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Does Gevo (NASDAQ:GEVO) have persistent basic indicators based on the latest rise?
Gevo is OVERVALUED at 3.32 per share with modest projections ahead. Gevo is dangerous given 1 month investment horizon. Gevo Inc holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.25, which attests that the entity had 0.25% of return per unit of risk over the last month. Our standpoint towards determining the volatility of a stock is to use Gevo Inc market data together with company specific technical indicators. We were able to analyze twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 2.76% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Gevo Inc Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2802, downside deviation of 6.25, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 1.4 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away.
Typically, a company's financial statements are the reports that show the financial position of the company. There are three main documents that fall into the category of financial statements. These documents include Gevo income statement, its balance sheet, and the statement of cash flows. Potential Gevo investors and stakeholders use financial statements to determine how well the company is positioned to perform in the future. Although Gevo investors may use each financial statement separately, they are all related. The changes in Gevo's assets and liabilities, for example, are also reflected in the revenues and expenses that we see on Gevo's income statement, which results in the company's gains or losses. Cash flows can provide more information regarding cash listed on a balance sheet, but not equivalent to net income shown on the income statement. Please read more on our technical analysis and fundamental analysis pages. The goal of Gevo fundamental analysis is to do accurate financial forecasts. There are several possible objectives to fundamental analysis, such as projecting of Gevo performance into the future periods or doing a reasonable stock valuation. The intrinsic value of Gevo shares is the value that is considered the true value of the share. If the intrinsic value Gevo is higher than its market price, buying is generally recommended. If it is equal to the market price, it is recommended to hold; and if it is less than the market price, then one should sell all shares Gevo. Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.

Are Gevo Earnings Expected to grow?

The future earnings power of Gevo involves the interaction of many company-specific, industry, and economic forces. Earnings estimates embody investors' opinions of Gevo factors such as sales growth, product demand, competitive industry environment, profit margins, and cost controls. Gevo stock prices adjust as these expectations change or are proven wrong. The main thing to remember is that equities with high expected earnings growth tend to underperform the market because it is usually difficult to meet the market's high expectations. Companies with low earnings expectations tend to do better than expected. Please use our latest analysis of Gevo expected earnings.

How Gevo utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Gevo, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Gevo is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Gevo cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Gevo Net Cash Flow from Operations is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Net Cash Flow from Operations is estimated at (25.86 Million)

Gevo Gross Profit

Gevo Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Gevo previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Gevo Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Gross Profit in more details.

Payment of 9834 shares by Smull L Lynn of Gevo subject to Rule 16b-3

Legal trades by Gevo insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Gevo insider trading alert for payment of common stock by Smull L Lynn, Chief Financial Officer, on 17th of December 2020. This event was filed by Gevo Inc with SEC on 2020-12-17. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking down Gevo Indicators

The latest price rise of Gevo may raise some interest from institutional investors. The stock closed today at a share price of 3.70 on 108,231,442 in trading volume. The company directors and management may have good odds in positioning the firm resources to exploit market volatility in January. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 10.94. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the Gevo Inc partners.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Revenues USD27.54 M32.86 M24.49 M27.87 M
Revenues27.54 M32.86 M24.49 M27.87 M

Asset Utilization

The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Gevo has an asset utilization ratio of 11.56 percent. This suggests that the company is making $0.12 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that Gevo Inc is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.

Current Assets
28.3 M
Assets Non Current
72.3 M
Current Assets28.26 Million28.11
Assets Non Current72.26 Million71.89

Another 3 percent rise for Gevo

Latest maximum drawdown is at 66.43. As of the 27th of December, Gevo retains the Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2802, market risk adjusted performance of 1.4, and Downside Deviation of 6.25. Gevo technical analysis makes it possible for you to employ historical prices and volume momentum with the intention to determine a pattern that calculates the direction of the firm's future prices. Simply put, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical price patterns, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to analyze nineteen technical drivers for Gevo Inc, which can be compared to its competitors. Please check out Gevo Inc information ratio, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the Potential Upside and kurtosis to decide if Gevo is priced fairly, providing market reflects its last-minute price of 3.7 per share. Given that Gevo Inc has jensen alpha of 2.38, we strongly advise you to confirm Gevo Inc's regular market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Conclusion on Gevo

Whereas some firms within the specialty chemicals industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Gevo may offer a potential longer-term growth to institutional investors. To sum up, as of the 27th of December 2020, our analysis shows that Gevo actively responds to the market. The company is overvalued and projects very low probability of distress for the next 2 years. Our actual 30 days Buy-Hold-Sell recommendation on the company is Strong Hold.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Gevo Inc. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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