Guaranty Story

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GFED -- USA Stock  

USD 14.40  0.60  4.35%

It looks as if Guaranty Federal may not recover as fast as we have hopped for as its price went down 4.61% today. The company's current daily volatility is 3.42 percent, with a beta of -0.19 and an alpha of 0.16 over DOW. While many traders are getting carried away by overanalyzing market volatility, it is reasonable to digest Guaranty Federal Bancshares based on how it reacts to the latest economic swings. We will evaluate if Guaranty Federal shares are reasonably priced going into August.
Published over two months ago
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Is Guaranty Federal stock way too aggressive for baby boomers?
Guaranty Federal Bancshares currently holds roughly 87.88 M in cash with 13.05 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 20.13, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Investing in Guaranty Federal, just like investing in any other equity instrument, is characterized by a strong risk-return correlation. High risks mean high returns and low risk means lower expected returns. Risk management is the act of identifying and assessing the potential risk and developing strategies to minimize these risks and earn maximum possible profits while holding Guaranty Federal along with other instruments in the same portfolio. Using conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis to select individual securities into a portfolio complements risk management and adds value to overall investors' investing strategies.

How important is Guaranty Federal's Liquidity

Guaranty Federal financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Guaranty Federal Bancshares ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Guaranty Federal financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Please check the breakdown between Guaranty Federal's total debt and its cash.

How Guaranty utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Guaranty Federal, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Guaranty Federal is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Guaranty Federal cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Guaranty Federal Net Cash Flow from Operations is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Net Cash Flow from Operations was at 8.33 Million

Guaranty Federal Correlation with Peers

Investors in Guaranty can reduce exposure to individual asset risk by holding a diversified portfolio of assets in addition to a long position in Guaranty Federal Bancshares. Diversification will allow for the same portfolio return with reduced risk. The correlation table of Guaranty Federal and its peers is a two-dimensional matrix that shows the correlation coefficient between pairs of securities Guaranty is related in some way. The cells in the table are color-coded to highlight significantly positive and negative relationships. Each cell shows the correlation between one pair of equities and can be used to run pair trading strategies or create efficient portfolios with your current brokerage. Please check volatility of Guaranty for more details

Breaking down Guaranty Federal Indicators

We consider Guaranty Federal somewhat reliable. Guaranty Federal Ban holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0255, which attests that the entity had 0.0255% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last month. Our philosophy in determining the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Guaranty Federal Ban, which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please check out Guaranty Federal risk adjusted performance of 0.074, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.65) to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.087%.
Click cells to compare fundamentals   Check Volatility   Backtest Portfolio

Guaranty Federal is getting out of control

Latest skewness is at 0.76. Guaranty Federal Bancshares shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. We advise investors to inspect Guaranty Federal Bancshares further and ensure that all market timing and asset allocation strategies are consistent with the estimation of Guaranty Federal future alpha.

Our Takeaway on Guaranty Federal Investment

Although other entities under the banks?regional industry are still a bit expensive, Guaranty Federal may offer a potential longer-term growth to shareholders. With a less-than optimistic outlook for your 30 days horizon, it may be a good time to drop some or all of your Guaranty Federal holdings as it seems the potential growth was already fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Guaranty Federal.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Achuva Shats do not own shares of Guaranty Federal Bancshares. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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