Guaranty Story

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GFED -- USA Stock  

USD 14.70  0.69  4.93%

Let's first try to digest why Guaranty Federal investors are seeking stability amid unprecedented economic uncertainty. Guaranty Federal Ban is currently traded for 14.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01. The firm is forecasted to increase in value after the next press release, with the price going to jump to 14.84. The latest volatility of headline impact on the company stock price is is way over 100 percent making price predictions on social media along less reliable. The price growth on the next news is estimated to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the next forecasted announcement will be in about 5 days.
Published six days ago
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Should I trade my Guaranty Federal (NASDAQ:GFED) holdings?
The company's average rating is Hold from 1 analysts. Our advice tool can cross-verify current analyst consensus on Guaranty Federal and to analyze the company potential to grow in the current economic cycle. About 48.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. Guaranty Federal Ban has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.71. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of October 2020. The firm had 1931:1000 split on the 31st of December 1997.
The successful prediction of Guaranty Federal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Guaranty Federal Bancshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Guaranty Federal based on Guaranty Federal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Guaranty Federal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Guaranty Federal's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Guaranty expected Price

Guaranty Federal technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Guaranty Federal technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Guaranty Federal trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How Guaranty utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Guaranty Federal, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Guaranty Federal is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Guaranty Federal cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Guaranty Federal Net Cash Flow from Operations is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Net Cash Flow from Operations was at 8.33 Million

Breaking down Guaranty Federal Indicators

Guaranty Federal Ban reported the previous year's revenue of 38.47 M. Net Income was 8.85 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 38.6 M.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Cash and Equivalents37.41 M34.12 M92.67 M99.99 M
Total Assets794.46 M965.14 M1.01 B958.44 M

Revenues Breakdown

Guaranty Federal Revenues is increasing over the years with slightly volatile fluctuation. Revenues is expected to dwindle to about 34.5 M. Revenues usually refers to amount of Revenue recognized from goods sold; services rendered; insurance premiums; or other activities that constitute an earning process. Interest income for financial institutions is reported net of interest expense and provision for credit losses. Guaranty Federal Revenues is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Revenues was at 38.6 Million
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
201324.53 Million
201422.76 Million
201524.79 Million
201624.71 Million
201727.33 Million
201838.65 Million
201938.6 Million
202034.45 Million

Another setback for Guaranty Federal shareholders

Latest total risk alpha indicator falls down to -0.31. Possible price growth? Guaranty Federal Bancshares exhibits very low volatility with skewness of -0.17 and kurtosis of 2.98. However, we advise investors to further study Guaranty Federal Bancshares technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable.

The Bottom Line

Although many other companies in the banks?regional industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Guaranty may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. To summarize, as of the 17th of October 2020, our current 30 days buy vs. sell advice on the firm is Cautious Hold. We believe Guaranty Federal is currently overvalued with close to average chance of financial distress for the next two years.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Achuva Shats do not own shares of Guaranty Federal Bancshares. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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