Guaranty Story

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GNTY -- USA Stock  

USD 31.26  0.24  0.77%

It appears Guaranty Bancshares will continue to recover much faster as its share price surged up 0.22% today. The company current daily volatility is 2.42 percent, with a beta of -0.23 and an alpha of 0.32 over DOW. As many baby boomers are still indifferent towards banking, it makes sense to break down Guaranty Bancshares. I will address the reasons why this entity does not get much respect from investors under the current market uncertainty.
Published over a month ago
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Will Guaranty Bancshares (NASDAQ:GNTY) current volatility rise scare investors?
Guaranty Bancshares currently holds roughly 193.37 M in cash with 39.43 M of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 17.62. This firm currently holds 162.3 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.16, which may suggest Guaranty Bancshares is not taking enough advantage from borrowing.
Investing in Guaranty Bancshares, just like investing in any other equity instrument, is characterized by a strong risk-return correlation. High risks mean high returns and low risk means lower expected returns. Risk management is the act of identifying and assessing the potential risk and developing strategies to minimize these risks and earn maximum possible profits while holding Guaranty Bancshares along with other instruments in the same portfolio. Using conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis to select individual securities into a portfolio complements risk management and adds value to overall investors' investing strategies.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guaranty Bancshares' stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guaranty Bancshares in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guaranty Bancshares. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guaranty Bancshares' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guaranty Bancshares' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guaranty Bancshares.

How important is Guaranty Bancshares's Liquidity

Guaranty Bancshares financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Guaranty Bancshares ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Guaranty Bancshares financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Please check the breakdown between Guaranty Bancshares's total debt and its cash.

How Guaranty utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Guaranty Bancshares, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Guaranty Bancshares is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Guaranty Bancshares cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.
Guaranty Bancshares Net Cash Flow from Operations is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Guaranty Bancshares reported Net Cash Flow from Operations of 36.85 Million in 2020

Guaranty Bancshares Correlation with Peers

Investors in Guaranty can reduce exposure to individual asset risk by holding a diversified portfolio of assets in addition to a long position in Guaranty Bancshares. Diversification will allow for the same portfolio return with reduced risk. The correlation table of Guaranty Bancshares and its peers is a two-dimensional matrix that shows the correlation coefficient between pairs of securities Guaranty is related in some way. The cells in the table are color-coded to highlight significantly positive and negative relationships. Each cell shows the correlation between one pair of equities and can be used to run pair trading strategies or create efficient portfolios with your current brokerage.
Please check volatility of Guaranty for more details

Purchase by James Bunch of 5000 shares of Guaranty Bancshares

Legal trades by Guaranty Bancshares insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Guaranty insider trading alert for perchase of common stock by James Bunch, the corporate stakeholder, on 18th of February 2021. This event was filed by Guaranty Bancshares Inc with SEC on 2021-02-18. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking down Guaranty Bancshares Indicators

Guaranty Bancshares appears to be very steady, given 1 month investment horizon. Guaranty Bancshares holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0976, which attests that the entity had 0.0976% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last month. Our philosophy in determining the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Guaranty Bancshares, which you can use to evaluate future volatility of the firm. Please utilize Guaranty Bancshares market risk adjusted performance of (1.24), and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1336 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
Click cells to compare fundamentals   Check Volatility   Backtest Portfolio

Will price continue to rise in February 2021?

Guaranty Bancshares current maximum drawdown rises over 12.14. Guaranty Bancshares currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.07 and Jensen Alpha of 0.32. However, we do advice investors to further question Guaranty Bancshares expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Our Conclusion on Guaranty Bancshares

While some companies under the banks?regional industry are still a bit expensive, Guaranty Bancshares may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. With a less-than optimistic outlook for your 30 days horizon, it may be a good time to drop some or all of your Guaranty Bancshares holdings as it seems the potential growth was already fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Guaranty Bancshares.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Achuva Shats do not own shares of Guaranty Bancshares. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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