Breaking down Great volatility

Macroaxis Story

Great Southern is currently generating 0.0457% in daily expected returns and assumes 1.3412% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. As many investors are getting excited about financial services space, it is fair to go over Great Southern Bncp. We will analyze if the expected returns on Great Southern will justify its current volatility. Great Southern's very low volatility may have no significant impact on the stock's value as we estimate Great Southern as currently undervalued. The real value, based on our calculations, is getting close to 61.50 per share.

Published over a year ago

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Reviewed by Ellen Johnson

The entity currently holds 280.51 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.06, which may suggest Great Southern is not taking enough advantage from borrowing.

Volatility is a rate at which the price of Great Southern or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Great Southern may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Great's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Great Southern and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Great Southern fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.

How important is Great Southern's Liquidity

Great Southern financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Great Southern Bancorp ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Great Southern financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Great Southern's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Great Southern's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Great Southern's total debt and its cash.

Great Southern Gross Profit

Great Southern Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Great Southern previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Great Southern Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Great Southern's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Great Southern Volatility Drivers

Great Southern unsystematic risk is unique to Great Southern Bancorp and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Great Southern you can also buy Home Bancorp. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the financials sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Great Southern important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Great Southern income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Great volatility.

	Total Assets	Net Debt	Total Liab	Common Stock	Good Will	Capital Stock	Net Income	Total Revenue	Gross Profit	Tax Provision	Ptb Ratio	Pb Ratio	Ev To Sales	Payout Ratio	Pfcf Ratio	Pe Ratio	Current Ratio	Graham Number	Ebt Per Ebit	Quick Ratio	Cash Ratio	Debt Ratio	Market Cap
Total Assets		-0.06	1.0	-0.15	0.78	-0.59	0.78	0.28	0.25	0.44	0.71	0.71	0.41	0.4	0.6	0.77	-0.26	0.97	0.62	-0.19	-0.19	-0.37	0.87
Net Debt	-0.06		-0.05	-0.24	0.06	-0.23	-0.21	-0.44	-0.45	0.03	0.26	0.26	0.59	-0.38	-0.06	-0.09	-0.13	-0.02	0.42	-0.28	-0.33	0.67	0.0
Total Liab	1.0	-0.05		-0.17	0.77	-0.6	0.77	0.28	0.24	0.45	0.72	0.72	0.42	0.39	0.59	0.77	-0.24	0.96	0.63	-0.18	-0.17	-0.36	0.86
Common Stock	-0.15	-0.24	-0.17		-0.22	0.88	0.17	0.73	0.75	-0.53	0.1	0.1	-0.72	0.44	0.13	0.36	0.26	-0.23	-0.65	0.13	0.17	-0.48	0.14
Good Will	0.78	0.06	0.77	-0.22		-0.56	0.65	0.01	-0.02	0.54	0.61	0.61	0.48	0.19	0.62	0.37	-0.7	0.81	0.53	-0.64	-0.64	-0.1	0.84
Capital Stock	-0.59	-0.23	-0.6	0.88	-0.56		-0.19	0.48	0.51	-0.65	-0.31	-0.31	-0.81	0.24	-0.17	-0.07	0.34	-0.65	-0.85	0.25	0.28	-0.29	-0.33
Net Income	0.78	-0.21	0.77	0.17	0.65	-0.19		0.56	0.53	0.33	0.48	0.48	0.01	0.41	0.62	0.64	-0.25	0.82	0.18	-0.19	-0.17	-0.65	0.81
Total Revenue	0.28	-0.44	0.28	0.73	0.01	0.48	0.56		1.0	-0.21	0.33	0.33	-0.71	0.49	0.44	0.63	0.24	0.21	-0.52	0.25	0.27	-0.8	0.43
Gross Profit	0.25	-0.45	0.24	0.75	-0.02	0.51	0.53	1.0		-0.24	0.3	0.3	-0.73	0.48	0.4	0.61	0.26	0.18	-0.55	0.26	0.28	-0.79	0.4
Tax Provision	0.44	0.03	0.45	-0.53	0.54	-0.65	0.33	-0.21	-0.24		0.42	0.42	0.49	-0.37	0.16	0.15	-0.33	0.52	0.51	-0.27	-0.28	0.01	0.38
Ptb Ratio	0.71	0.26	0.72	0.1	0.61	-0.31	0.48	0.33	0.3	0.42		1.0	0.32	0.09	0.55	0.73	-0.15	0.65	0.44	-0.31	-0.29	-0.09	0.83
Pb Ratio	0.71	0.26	0.72	0.1	0.61	-0.31	0.48	0.33	0.3	0.42	1.0		0.32	0.09	0.55	0.73	-0.15	0.65	0.44	-0.31	-0.29	-0.09	0.83
Ev To Sales	0.41	0.59	0.42	-0.72	0.48	-0.81	0.01	-0.71	-0.73	0.49	0.32	0.32		-0.28	0.01	0.01	-0.35	0.46	0.95	-0.39	-0.4	0.58	0.23
Payout Ratio	0.4	-0.38	0.39	0.44	0.19	0.24	0.41	0.49	0.48	-0.37	0.09	0.09	-0.28		0.48	0.5	0.03	0.27	-0.13	0.1	0.11	-0.57	0.33
Pfcf Ratio	0.6	-0.06	0.59	0.13	0.62	-0.17	0.62	0.44	0.4	0.16	0.55	0.55	0.01	0.48		0.44	-0.42	0.57	0.1	-0.51	-0.49	-0.34	0.78
Pe Ratio	0.77	-0.09	0.77	0.36	0.37	-0.07	0.64	0.63	0.61	0.15	0.73	0.73	0.01	0.5	0.44		0.17	0.65	0.27	0.14	0.15	-0.58	0.72
Current Ratio	-0.26	-0.13	-0.24	0.26	-0.7	0.34	-0.25	0.24	0.26	-0.33	-0.15	-0.15	-0.35	0.03	-0.42	0.17		-0.35	-0.24	0.87	0.9	-0.25	-0.4
Graham Number	0.97	-0.02	0.96	-0.23	0.81	-0.65	0.82	0.21	0.18	0.52	0.65	0.65	0.46	0.27	0.57	0.65	-0.35		0.63	-0.28	-0.27	-0.3	0.85
Ebt Per Ebit	0.62	0.42	0.63	-0.65	0.53	-0.85	0.18	-0.52	-0.55	0.51	0.44	0.44	0.95	-0.13	0.1	0.27	-0.24	0.63		-0.27	-0.27	0.36	0.38
Quick Ratio	-0.19	-0.28	-0.18	0.13	-0.64	0.25	-0.19	0.25	0.26	-0.27	-0.31	-0.31	-0.39	0.1	-0.51	0.14	0.87	-0.28	-0.27		0.99	-0.36	-0.47
Cash Ratio	-0.19	-0.33	-0.17	0.17	-0.64	0.28	-0.17	0.27	0.28	-0.28	-0.29	-0.29	-0.4	0.11	-0.49	0.15	0.9	-0.27	-0.27	0.99		-0.37	-0.45
Debt Ratio	-0.37	0.67	-0.36	-0.48	-0.1	-0.29	-0.65	-0.8	-0.79	0.01	-0.09	-0.09	0.58	-0.57	-0.34	-0.58	-0.25	-0.3	0.36	-0.36	-0.37		-0.36
Market Cap	0.87	0.0	0.86	0.14	0.84	-0.33	0.81	0.43	0.4	0.38	0.83	0.83	0.23	0.33	0.78	0.72	-0.4	0.85	0.38	-0.47	-0.45	-0.36

Click cells to compare fundamentals

Breaking down Great Southern Further

The firm reported the previous year's revenue of 219.81 M. Net Income was 77.13 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 196.24 M.

	2019	2020	2021	2022 (projected)
Net Income	73.61 M	59.31 M	68.21 M	64.83 M
Gross Profit	205.2 M	196.32 M	225.76 M	221.14 M

Net Income Gross Profit

Will price continue to rise in February 2022?

Current Treynor Ratio is up to 0.04. Price may slip again. Great Southern Bncp has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.11 and kurtosis of 1.17. However, we advise all investors to independently investigate Great Southern Bncp to ensure all accessible information is consistent with the expectations about its upside potential and future expected returns. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Great Southern's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Great Southern's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Great Southern Implied Volatility

Great Southern's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Great Southern Bncp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Great Southern's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Great Southern stock will not fluctuate a lot when Great Southern's options are near their expiration.

Our Final Take On Great Southern

Whereas other entities within the banks—regional industry are still a little expensive, even after the recent corrections, Great Southern may offer a potential longer-term growth to investors. While some investors may not share our view, we believe it may be a good time to increase your existing holdings in Great. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Great Southern.

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Editorial Staff

Vlad Skutelnik is a Macroaxis Contributor. Vlad covers stocks, funds, cryptocurrencies, and ETFs that are traded in North America, focusing primarily on fundamentals, valuation and market volatility. He has many years of experience in fintech, predictive investment analytics, and risk management. View Profile

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Great Southern Bancorp. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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