Hollyfrontier Story

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HFC -- USA Stock  

USD 35.24  0.07  0.20%

While some baby boomers are getting worried about energy space, it is reasonable to go over Hollyfrontier Corp against economic and market trends. As we have suggested previously, Hollyfrontier Corp is beginning its slip as investors shift to be more bearish due to the increased sector volatility. A lot of the movements of the company stock price movements has been a reflection of what is happening in the market overall. Strong basic indicators of the company may also suggest signals of long term gains for Hollyfrontier investors. Hollyfrontier Corp is scheduled to announce its earnings today. The next earnings report is expected on the 6th of May 2021.
Published over a month ago
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Will Hollyfrontier Corp (NYSE:HFC) continue to slip in March?
Hollyfrontier Corp's average rating is Hold from 12 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Hollyfrontier Corp market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Hollyfrontier. Let us look at a few aspects of Hollyfrontier technical analysis. The company has Net Profit Margin of (3.34) %, which means that it does not effectively control expenditures or properly executes on its pricing strategies. This is way below average. In the same way, it shows Net Operating Margin of 2.69 %, which entails that for every 100 dollars of revenue, it generated 0.03 of operating income.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hollyfrontier Corp. In general, we focus on analyzing Hollyfrontier Corp stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Hollyfrontier Corp's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Hollyfrontier Corp's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Hollyfrontier Corp, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Hollyfrontier Corp price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hollyfrontier Corp's stock price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hollyfrontier Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hollyfrontier Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hollyfrontier Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hollyfrontier Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hollyfrontier Corp.

How does Hollyfrontier Stands against Peers?

Analyzing Hollyfrontier Corp competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to Hollyfrontier Corp across multiple sectors and thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be.
Check out Hollyfrontier Corp Competition Details

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions.
It is good to see analyst projects for Hollyfrontier Corp, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Purchase by Franklin Myers of 3310 shares of Hollyfrontier Corp

Legal trades by Hollyfrontier Corp insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Hollyfrontier insider trading alert for perchase of common stock by Franklin Myers, the corporate stakeholder, on 2nd of March 2021. This event was filed by Hollyfrontier Corp with SEC on 2021-03-02. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4. Franklin Myers currently serves as independent chairman of the board of Hollyfrontier Corp [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Closer look at Hollyfrontier Corp Downside Variance

Hollyfrontier Corp has current Downside Variance of 7.92. Downside Variance (or DV) is measured by target semi-variance and is termed downside volatility. It is expressed in percentages and therefore allows for rankings in the same way as variance. One way to view downside volatility is the annualized variance of returns below the target.

Downside Variance is the probability-weighted squared below-target returns. The squaring of the below-target returns has the effect of penalizing failures at an exponential rate. This is consistent with observations made on the behavior of individual decision-making under.

Downside Variance 
 = 
SUM(RET DEV)2 
N(ER) 
 = 
7.92
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Actual returns deviation over selected period
N(ER) = Number of points with returns less than expected return for the period
Let's now compare Hollyfrontier Corp Downside Variance to its closest peers:
HFC
DK
CVI
CZZ
HFC7.92
DK15.15
CVI16.45
CZZ9.78

Our Hollyfrontier analysis suggests possible reversion in March

The semi variance is down to 5.55 as of today. Hollyfrontier Corp currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.2 and Jensen Alpha of 0.72. However, we advise investors to further question Hollyfrontier Corp expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Hollyfrontier Corp's stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Hollyfrontier Corp's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Our Bottom Line On Hollyfrontier Corp

Whereas some other companies in the oil & gas refining & marketing industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Hollyfrontier may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. To summarize, as of the 24th of February 2021, we believe that at this point, Hollyfrontier Corp is overvalued with below average odds of financial turmoil within the next 2 years. However, our concluding buy-sell recommendation on the company is Strong Buy.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Hollyfrontier Corp. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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