Houlihan Story

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HLI -- USA Stock  

USD 56.20  0.02  0.0356%

A current spike in volatility has left many stockholders looking confused. In this story, we will concentrate on Houlihan Lokey. We will evaluate why recent Houlihan Lokey price moves suggest a bounce in August. On the 28th of July the company is traded for 56.03. Houlihan Lokey has historical hype elasticity of 0.02. The average price elasticity to hype of competition is about -0.06. The entity is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price going to jump to 56.05. The current volatility of media hype impact on Houlihan Lokey stock price is is way over 100 percent making price predictions on social media along less reliable. The price rise on the next news is estimated to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.06%. The volatility of related hype on Houlihan Lokey is about 208.25% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 55.97 Considering the 30-days investment horizon, the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Published over two months ago
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Do you have a personal attachment to Houlihan Lokey?
This firm's average rating is Hold from 5 analysts. Our investment recommendation module provides unbiased trade recommendations that can be used to complement current average analyst sentiment on Houlihan Lokey. Our investment recommendation engine provides an advice for the firm potential to grow from the perspective of an investor's risk tolerance and investing horizon. The company has Net Profit Margin of 15.86 %, which may imply that it executes well on its competitive polices and has reasonable control over its expenses and variable costs. This is very large.
The successful prediction of Houlihan Lokey stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Houlihan Lokey, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Houlihan Lokey based on Houlihan Lokey hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators. We also calculate exposure to Houlihan Lokey's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Houlihan Lokey's related companies.

Use Technical Analysis to project Houlihan expected Price

Houlihan Lokey technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Houlihan Lokey technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Houlihan Lokey trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...

How Houlihan utilizes its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Houlihan Lokey, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Houlihan Lokey is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Houlihan Lokey cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities. Houlihan Lokey Net Cash Flow from Operations is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Net Cash Flow from Operations was reported at 287.67 Million

Bona fide gift to Paul Zuber of 3062 shares of Houlihan Lokey subject to Section 16

Legal trades by Houlihan Lokey insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Houlihan insider trading alert for gift of class a common stock by Paul Zuber, the corporate stakeholder, on 6th of August 2020. This event was filed by Houlihan Lokey Inc with SEC on 2020-08-06. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Breaking down the case for Houlihan Lokey

The small decline in market price for the last few months may raise some interest from stockholders. The stock closed today at a share price of 55.54 on very low momentum in trading volume. The company executives did not add much value to Houlihan Lokey investors in June. However, diversifying your holdings with Houlihan Lokey or similar stocks can still protect your portfolio during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 30 days investing horizon is currently 1.97. The below-average Stock volatility is a good sign for a longer term investment options and for buy-and-hold investors.
 2017 2018 2019 2020 (projected)
Receivables77.26 M70.83 M80.91 M70.01 M
Inventories45.86 M71.89 M39.82 M41.86 M

Deferred Revenue Breakdown

Houlihan Lokey Deferred Revenue is increasing over the last several years with slightly volatile swings. Deferred Revenue is estimated to finish at about 28.9 M this year. Deferred Revenue usually refers to a component of Total Liabilities representing the carrying amount of consideration received or receivable on potential earnings that were not recognized as revenue; including sales; license fees; and royalties; but excluding interest income. Houlihan Lokey Deferred Revenue is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Deferred Revenue was reported at 26.78 Million
2010
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
20105.38 Million
20143.06 Million
20155.55 Million
20163.72 Million
20173.62 Million
201827.81 Million
201926.78 Million
202028.89 Million

Houlihan Lokey has 93 percent chance to finish above $55 in August

The semi variance is down to 5.2 as of today. Houlihan Lokey currently demonstrates below-verage downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.07 and Jensen Alpha of -0.09. However, we do advice investors to further question Houlihan Lokey expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk.

Our Conclusion on Houlihan Lokey

While many other companies in the capital markets industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Houlihan may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. With a somewhat neutral outlook on your 30 days horizon, it may be better to hold off any trading activity and neither buy new shares of Houlihan nor exit your existing holdings in the Stock. It seems the expected volatility has not yet been fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Houlihan Lokey.

About Contributor

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Houlihan Lokey. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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