Intrusion (USA Stocks:INTZ) volatility maybe dropping already
 | By Raphi Shpitalnik | Macroaxis Story |
Every cloud has a silver lining, and Intrusion Inc., a Software - Infrastructure company traded on NASDAQ, might just be that silver lining for savvy investors this December. Despite the company's current valuation market value standing at a modest $0.48, the possible upside price is a whopping $10.92, presenting a potentially lucrative opportunity. However, investors should tread carefully as the possible downside price is a mere $0.0048. The analyst overall consensus for Intrusion is a 'Hold', with the analyst target price estimated value and both the highest and lowest estimated target prices standing at $1. This suggests a level of uncertainty in the market, reflected in the company's valuation hype value of $0.48. The fiscal year end in December could bring about significant changes, with the naive expected forecast value currently at $0.56. With only one analyst providing estimates, the waters are somewhat uncharted. Yet, for those willing to navigate the volatility, Intrusion may offer a compelling investment opportunity. Intrusion currently does not generate positive expected returns and assumes a 10.3608% risk (volatility on return distribution) over a 60-day horizon. Given the excitement many eager investors have about the software space, we will analyze Intrusion in the context of its current volatility. We will explore the potential for Intrusion's current volatility to continue through December.
Macroaxis uses a strict editorial review process to publish stories and blog posts. Our publishers support our company and may receive a small commission when the partner links or references are utilized. Commissions do not affect the opinions or evaluations of our editorial team. The information our editors and media partners deliver is confidential and licensed for your sole use as a Macroaxis user. We reserve all rights to the content of this article, and therefore copying or distributing this story in whole or in part is strictly prohibited.
Reviewed by Gabriel Shpitalnik
Intrusion currently has $11.32 million in liabilities, with a Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 6.2. This suggests that Intrusion may face challenges in generating sufficient cash to meet its financial obligations. The company's current ratio is 0.85, indicating a negative working capital and potential inability to meet financial obligations when they are due.
Debt can aid Intrusion until it encounters difficulties in repayment, either through new capital or free cash flow. If the company fails to meet its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could potentially lose everything. However, it is more common for companies like Intrusion to sell additional shares at low prices, diluting the value for existing shareholders. In this context, debt can be a beneficial tool for Intrusion to invest in high-return growth. When considering Intrusion's debt, it should always be evaluated in conjunction with cash and equity.
The company has a Market Volatility (Beta) of 2.9271, suggesting a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. If the market rises, the company is expected to outperform it. Conversely, if the market has negative returns, Intrusion is likely to underperform.
While it's important to consider Intrusion's current price history, caution should be exercised when using equity current price movements. Our approach to predicting any stock's future performance involves examining both its past performance charts and the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators.
Intrusion provides fifteen different technical indicators to help evaluate its performance. Intrusion has an expected return of -0.42%. It is recommended to review Intrusion's risk-adjusted performance, information ratio, as well as the relationship between the Information Ratio and kurtosis to determine if Intrusion's past performance will be repeated in the near future.
Key Takeaways
Intrusion Stock presents a mixed bag of opportunities and risks as we approach December. The stock's variance of 106.46 and standard deviation of 10.32 highlight a high level of volatility, which could be attractive for traders looking for short-term price swings. However, its negative Information Ratio of -0.06 and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of -0.21 suggest underperformance relative to the market risk. Furthermore, Intrusion's maximum drawdown of 43.79 indicates a significant loss potential, which investors need to consider. Despite the potential upside of 16.67, the stock's negative metrics and high volatility make it a risky investment for December. Volatility is a rate at which the price of Intrusion or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Intrusion may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Intrusion's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Intrusion and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Intrusion fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility. Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Watch out for price decline
Please consider monitoring Intrusion on a daily basis if you are holding a position in it. Intrusion is trading at a penny-stock level, and the possibility of delisting is much higher compared to other stocks. However, just because the stock is trading under one dollar, does not mean it will be marked for deletion. Most exchanges require public instruments, such as Intrusion stock to be traded above the $1 level to remain listed. If Intrusion stock price falls below $1 for 30 consecutive trading days, the exchange can delist it. Once the company reaches this point, they will be sent an initial price violation notice directly from an exchange.
How important is Intrusion's Liquidity
Intrusion financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Intrusion ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Intrusion financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to Intrusion's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of Intrusion's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between Intrusion's total debt and its cash.
Intrusion Gross Profit
Intrusion Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing Intrusion previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show Intrusion Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check Intrusion's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.
Intrusion Volatility Drivers
Intrusion unsystematic risk is unique to Intrusion and usually not directly affected by the market or economic environment. An example of unsystematic risk is the possibility of poor earnings or a layoff due to coronavirus. One may mitigate nonsystematic risk by buying different securities in the same industry or by buying in different sectors. For example, if you have a position in Intrusion you can also buy Cerberus Cyber Sentinel. You can also mitigate this risk by investing in the information technology sector as well as in companies having nothing to do with it. This type of risk is also called diversifiable risk and can be understood from analyzing Intrusion important indicators over time. Here we run a correlation analysis between relevant fundamental ratios over at least ten year period to find a relationship in the way they react to changes in Intrusion income statement and balance sheet. Here are more details about Intrusion volatility.Click cells to compare fundamentals
Detailed Perspective On Intrusion
The big decline in price over the last few months for Intrusionmay raise some interest from investors. The stock closed today at a share price of 0.48 on very low momentum in trading volume. The company executives failed to add value to investors and position the firm supply of money to exploit market volatility in October. However, diversifying your holdings with Intrusion or similar stocks can still protect your portfolios during high-volatility market scenarios. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 10.36. The very high volatility is mostly attributed to the latest market swings and not very good earnings reports from some of the Intrusion partners. "Buy low, sell high" is a well-known investment adage that may be applicable to Intrusion stock this December. Despite a maximum drawdown of 43.79% and a high probability of bankruptcy at 95.50%, the stock presents a potential upside of 16.67%. The company's current valuation stands at 22.65M, with a market capitalization of 11.52M. However, investors should be cautious as the company's debt to equity ratio is at 6.20%, indicating a higher reliance on debt for its operations. Furthermore, the company's price to earnings ratio is a staggering 346.77X, suggesting that the stock may be overvalued. Despite these risks, with a target price of $3, Intrusion stock could be a compelling investment opportunity for those willing to take on a higher level of risk. .
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectEditorial Staff
This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Raphi Shpitalnik do not own shares of Intrusion. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.